A Novel Hybrid Data-Driven Model for Daily Land Surface Temperature Forecasting Using Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network Based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition

Xike Zhang, Qiuwen Zhang, Gui Zhang, Zhiping Nie, Zifan Gui and Huafei Que
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Xike Zhang: School of Hydropower and Information Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
Qiuwen Zhang: School of Hydropower and Information Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
Gui Zhang: Key Laboratory for Digital Dongting Lake Basin of Hunan Province, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China
Zhiping Nie: School of Municipal and Mapping Engineering, Hunan City University, Yiyang 413000, China
Zifan Gui: Shenzhen Garden Management Center, Shenzhen 518000, China
Huafei Que: Key Laboratory for Digital Dongting Lake Basin of Hunan Province, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China

IJERPH, 2018, vol. 15, issue 5, 1-23

Abstract: Daily land surface temperature (LST) forecasting is of great significance for application in climate-related, agricultural, eco-environmental, or industrial studies. Hybrid data-driven prediction models using Ensemble Empirical Mode Composition (EEMD) coupled with Machine Learning (ML) algorithms are useful for achieving these purposes because they can reduce the difficulty of modeling, require less history data, are easy to develop, and are less complex than physical models. In this article, a computationally simple, less data-intensive, fast and efficient novel hybrid data-driven model called the EEMD Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, namely EEMD-LSTM, is proposed to reduce the difficulty of modeling and to improve prediction accuracy. The daily LST data series from the Mapoling and Zhijaing stations in the Dongting Lake basin, central south China, from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2016 is used as a case study. The EEMD is firstly employed to decompose the original daily LST data series into many Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) and a single residue item. Then, the Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) is used to obtain the number of input data sample points for LSTM models. Next, the LSTM models are constructed to predict the decompositions. All the predicted results of the decompositions are aggregated as the final daily LST. Finally, the prediction performance of the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is assessed in terms of the Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Pearson Correlation Coefficient (CC) and Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE). To validate the hybrid data-driven model, the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is compared with the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), LSTM and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) coupled with RNN, EMD-LSTM and EEMD-RNN models, and their comparison results demonstrate that the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model performs better than the other five models. The scatterplots of the predicted results of the six models versus the original daily LST data series show that the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is superior to the other five models. It is concluded that the proposed hybrid EEMD-LSTM model in this study is a suitable tool for temperature forecasting.

Keywords: daily land surface temperature; forecasting; data-driven; hybrid model; Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD); Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM); Neural Network (NN); Dongting Lake basin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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