Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Zika and Dengue Infections within Colombia

Daniel Adyro Martínez-Bello, Antonio López-Quílez and Alexander Torres Prieto
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Daniel Adyro Martínez-Bello: Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Faculty of Mathematics, University of Valencia, 46100 Valencia, Spain
Antonio López-Quílez: Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Faculty of Mathematics, University of Valencia, 46100 Valencia, Spain
Alexander Torres Prieto: Epidemiologic Monitoring Office, Secretary of Health of the Department of Santander, Cl. 45 11-52 Bucaramanga, Colombia

IJERPH, 2018, vol. 15, issue 7, 1-18

Abstract: The aim of this study is to estimate the parallel relative risk of Zika virus disease (ZVD) and dengue using spatio-temporal interaction effects models for one department and one city of Colombia during the 2015–2016 ZVD outbreak. We apply the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) for parameter estimation, using the epidemiological week (EW) as a time measure. At the departmental level, the best model showed that the dengue or ZVD risk in one municipality was highly associated with risk in the same municipality during the preceding EWs, while at the city level, the final model selected established that the high risk of dengue or ZVD in one census sector was highly associated not only with its neighboring census sectors in the same EW, but also with its neighboring sectors in the preceding EW. The spatio-temporal models provided smoothed risk estimates, credible risk intervals, and estimation of the probability of high risk of dengue and ZVD by area and time period. We explore the intricacies of the modeling process and interpretation of the results, advocating for the use of spatio-temporal models of the relative risk of dengue and ZVD in order to generate highly valuable epidemiological information for public health decision making.

Keywords: disease mapping; Bayesian modeling; integrated nested Laplace approximation; relative risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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