Joint Risk of Rainfall and Storm Surges during Typhoons in a Coastal City of Haidian Island, China

Hongshi Xu, Kui Xu, Lingling Bin, Jijian Lian and Chao Ma
Additional contact information
Hongshi Xu: State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China
Kui Xu: State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China
Lingling Bin: State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China
Jijian Lian: State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China
Chao Ma: State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China

IJERPH, 2018, vol. 15, issue 7, 1-20

Abstract: Public health risks from urban floods are a global concern. A typhoon is a devastating natural hazard that is often accompanied by heavy rainfall and high storm surges and causes serious floods in coastal cities. Affected by the same meteorological systems, typhoons, rainfall, and storm surges are three variables with significant correlations. In the study, the joint risk of rainfall and storm surges during typhoons was investigated based on principal component analysis, copula-based probability analysis, urban flood inundation model, and flood risk model methods. First, a typhoon was characterized by principal component analysis, integrating the maximum sustained wind (MSW), center pressure, and distance between the typhoon center and the study area. Following this, the Gumbel copula was selected as the best-fit copula function for the joint probability distribution of typhoons, rainfall, and storm surges. Finally, the impact of typhoons on the joint risk of rainfall and storm surges was investigated. The results indicate the following: (1) Typhoons can be well quantified by the principal component analysis method. (2) Ignoring the dependence between these flood drivers can inappropriately underestimate the flood risk in coastal regions. (3) The co-occurrence probability of rainfall and storm surges increases by at least 200% during typhoons. Therefore, coastal urban flood management should pay more attention to the joint impact of rainfall and storm surges on flood risk when a typhoon has occurred. (4) The expected annual damage is 0.82 million dollars when there is no typhoon, and it rises to 3.27 million dollars when typhoons have occurred. This indicates that typhoons greatly increase the flood risk in coastal zones. The obtained results may provide a scientific basis for urban flood risk assessment and management in the study area.

Keywords: typhoon; rainfall; storm surge; multivariate analysis; flood risk model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/15/7/1377/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/15/7/1377/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:15:y:2018:i:7:p:1377-:d:155442

Access Statistics for this article

IJERPH is currently edited by Ms. Jenna Liu

More articles in IJERPH from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().