Predictors of Hypertension in Mauritians with Normotension and Prehypertension at Baseline: A Cohort Study

Sudhirsen Kowlessur, Zhibin Hu, Jaysing Heecharan, Jianming Wang, Juncheng Dai, Jaakko O. Tuomilehto, Stefan Söderberg, Paul Zimmet and Noël C. Barengo
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Sudhirsen Kowlessur: Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China
Zhibin Hu: Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China
Jaysing Heecharan: Ministry of Health and Quality of Life, Port Louis 11321, Mauritius
Jianming Wang: Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China
Juncheng Dai: Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China
Jaakko O. Tuomilehto: Department of Public Health, University of Helsinki, 00100 Helsinki, Finland
Stefan Söderberg: Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, SE-901 87 Umea, Sweden
Paul Zimmet: Department of Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3800, Australia
Noël C. Barengo: Medical and Population Health Sciences Research, Herbert Wertheim College of Medicine, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199, USA

IJERPH, 2018, vol. 15, issue 7, 1-12

Abstract: Information on the predictors of future hypertension in Mauritians with prehypertension is scant. The aim of this study was to analyze the 5-year and 11-year risk of hypertension and its predictors in people with normotension and prehypertension at baseline in Mauritius in 1987. This was a retrospective cohort study of 883 men and 1194 women of Mauritian Indian and Mauritian Creole ethnicity, aged 25–74 years old, free of hypertension at baseline in 1987 with follow-up examinations in 1992 and 1998 using the same methodology. The main outcome was 5- and 11-year risk of hypertension. Odds ratios (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. The 5-year risk of hypertension was 5.4-times higher in people with prehypertension compared with normotensive individuals at baseline. The corresponding odds for prehypertensive people at baseline regarding 11-year hypertension risk was 3.39 (95% CI 2.67–4.29) in the adjusted logistic regression models. Being of Creole ethnicity (OR 1.42; 95% CI 1.09–1.86) increased the 11-year odds of hypertension compared with the Indian population. It is of importance to screen for people with prehypertension and implement strategies to reduce their systolic blood pressure levels to the recommended levels of 120/80 mmHg. Special attention needs to be given to Mauritians of Creole ethnicity.

Keywords: systolic blood pressure; diastolic blood pressure; ethnicity; follow-up; risk prediction; central obesity; overweight; Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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