Air Health Trend Indicator: Association between Short-Term Exposure to Ground Ozone and Circulatory Hospitalizations in Canada for 17 Years, 1996–2012

Hwashin Hyun Shin, Wesley S. Burr, Dave Stieb, Lani Haque, Harun Kalayci, Branka Jovic and Marc Smith-Doiron
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Hwashin Hyun Shin: Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0K9, Canada
Wesley S. Burr: Department of Mathematics, Trent University, Peterborough, ON K9L 0G2, Canada
Dave Stieb: Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0K9, Canada
Lani Haque: Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0K9, Canada
Harun Kalayci: Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0K9, Canada
Branka Jovic: Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0K9, Canada
Marc Smith-Doiron: Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0K9, Canada

IJERPH, 2018, vol. 15, issue 8, 1-19

Abstract: The Air Health Trend Indicator is designed to estimate the public health risk related to short-term exposure to air pollution and to detect trends in the annual health risks. Daily ozone, circulatory hospitalizations and weather data for 24 cities (about 54% of Canadians) for 17 years (1996–2012) were used. This study examined three circulatory causes: ischemic heart disease (IHD, 40% of cases), other heart disease (OHD, 31%) and cerebrovascular disease (CEV, 14%). A Bayesian hierarchical model using a 7-year estimator was employed to find trends in the annual national associations by season, lag of effect, sex and age group (≤65 vs. >65). Warm season 1-day lagged ozone returned higher national risk per 10 ppb: 0.4% (95% credible interval, −0.3–1.1%) for IHD, 0.4% (−0.2–1.0%) for OHD, and 0.2% (−0.8–1.2%) for CEV. Overall mixed trends in annual associations were observed for IHD and CEV, but a decreasing trend for OHD. While little age effect was identified, some sex-specific difference was detected, with males seemingly more vulnerable to ozone for CEV, although this finding needs further investigation. The study findings could reduce a knowledge gap by identifying trends in risk over time as well as sub-populations susceptible to ozone by age and sex.

Keywords: Bayesian hierarchical model; cerebrovascular disease; hospitalizations; ground-ozone; ischemic heart disease; other heart disease; public health risk; trend (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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