Rapid Population Growth in Chinese Floodplains from 1990 to 2015

Yongqiang Fang, Shiqiang Du, Paolo Scussolini, Jiahong Wen, Chunyang He, Qingxu Huang and Jun Gao
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Yongqiang Fang: Department of Geography, Shanghai Normal University, 100 Guilin Road, Shanghai 200234, China
Shiqiang Du: Department of Geography, Shanghai Normal University, 100 Guilin Road, Shanghai 200234, China
Paolo Scussolini: Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Jiahong Wen: Department of Geography, Shanghai Normal University, 100 Guilin Road, Shanghai 200234, China
Chunyang He: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes & Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Qingxu Huang: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes & Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Jun Gao: Department of Geography, Shanghai Normal University, 100 Guilin Road, Shanghai 200234, China

IJERPH, 2018, vol. 15, issue 8, 1-11

Abstract: Although China suffers from frequent and disastrous floods, the spatiotemporal pattern of its population living in the floodplain (PopF) is still unknown. This strongly limits our understanding of flood risk and the effectiveness of mitigation efforts. Here we present the first quantification of Chinese PopF and its dynamics, based on newly-available population datasets for years 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2015 and on a flood map. We found that the PopF in 2015 was 453.3 million and accounted for 33.0% of the total population, with a population density 3.6 times higher than outside floodplains. From 1990 to 2015, the PopF increased by 1.3% annually, overwhelmingly faster than elsewhere (0.5%). A rising proportion (from 53.2% in 1990 to 55.6% in 2015) of the PopF resided in flood zones deeper than 2 m. Moreover, the PopF is expected to increase rapidly in the coming decades. We also found the effect of flood memory on controlling PopF growth and its decay over time. These findings imply an exacerbating flood risk in China, which is concerning in the light of climate change and rapid socioeconomic development.

Keywords: floodplain; population exposure; flood memory; sustainability; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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