Evolution Characteristics of Surface Water Quality Due to Climate Change and LUCC under Scenario Simulations: A Case Study in the Luanhe River Basin

Wuxia Bi, Baisha Weng, Zhe Yuan, Mao Ye, Cheng Zhang, Yu Zhao, Dengming Yan and Ting Xu
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Wuxia Bi: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Baisha Weng: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Zhe Yuan: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Mao Ye: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Cheng Zhang: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Yu Zhao: State Key Laboratory on Environmental Aquatic Chemistry, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China
Dengming Yan: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Ting Xu: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China

IJERPH, 2018, vol. 15, issue 8, 1-18

Abstract: It is of great significance to study the effects and mechanisms of the key driving forces of surface water quality deterioration—climate change and LUCC (land use and land cover change). The Luanhe River Basin (LRB) in north-eastern China was examined for qualitatively and quantitatively assessing the responses of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads on different climate scenarios and LUCC scenarios. The results show that from 1963 to 2017, the TN and TP loads basically presented a negative correlation with the temperature change (except for winter), while showing a significant positive correlation with the precipitation change. The incidence of TN pollution is sensitive to temperature increase. From 2020 to 2050, the annual average loads of TN and TP were slightly lower than from 1963 to 2017. The contribution of rising temperature was more significant on nutrient loads. Also, the incidence of TN pollution is sensitive to the future climate change. Under LUCC scenarios, the TN and TP loads and pollution incidence increased correspondingly with the decrease of natural land. The evolution characteristics analysis can provide support for the effect and adaptation-strategies study of climate change and LUCC on surface water quality.

Keywords: surface water quality; climate change; LUCC; model simulation; Luanhe River Basin (LRB) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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