The Sensitivity, Specificity and Accuracy of Warning Signs in Predicting Severe Dengue, the Severe Dengue Prevalence and Its Associated Factors

Mohd Hanief Ahmad, Mohd Ismail Ibrahim, Zeehaida Mohamed, Nabilah Ismail, Muhammad Amiruddin Abdullah, Rafidah Hanim Shueb and Mohd Nazri Shafei
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Mohd Hanief Ahmad: Department of Community Medicine, School of Medical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Kubang Kerian, Kota Bharu 16150, Kelantan, Malaysia
Mohd Ismail Ibrahim: Department of Community Medicine, School of Medical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Kubang Kerian, Kota Bharu 16150, Kelantan, Malaysia
Zeehaida Mohamed: Department of Microbiology & Parasitology, School of Medical Sciences, Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia, Kubang Kerian, Kota Bharu 16150, Kelantan, Malaysia
Nabilah Ismail: Department of Microbiology & Parasitology, School of Medical Sciences, Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia, Kubang Kerian, Kota Bharu 16150, Kelantan, Malaysia
Muhammad Amiruddin Abdullah: Department of Microbiology & Parasitology, School of Medical Sciences, Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia, Kubang Kerian, Kota Bharu 16150, Kelantan, Malaysia
Rafidah Hanim Shueb: Department of Microbiology & Parasitology, School of Medical Sciences, Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia, Kubang Kerian, Kota Bharu 16150, Kelantan, Malaysia
Mohd Nazri Shafei: Department of Community Medicine, School of Medical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Kubang Kerian, Kota Bharu 16150, Kelantan, Malaysia

IJERPH, 2018, vol. 15, issue 9, 1-12

Abstract: Objectives: To study Malaysian dengue clinical practice guideline (CPG) warning signs (WS) in predicting severe dengue (SD) and its associated factors among confirmed cases presented to a teaching hospital in north-eastern Malaysia in 2014. Methods: A cross-sectional study was performed in February 2015 using secondary data acquired from the hospital records. There were 2607 confirmed dengue cases presented to Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia (HUSM) in 2014. Seven hundred patients were selected after proportionate stratified random sampling conducted according to the number of cases in 12 different months in 2014. Data were collected and analysed using SPSS version 22.0. Results: Severe dengue outcomes represented 4.9% of cases. The prevalence of any of WS in SD was 91.2%. The most common WSs prior to SD were persistent vomiting (55.9%), and abdominal pain/tenderness (52.9%). The most sensitive warning sign in detecting SD was abdominal pain (59%). Specificity of individual WS were generally good, especially of clinical fluid accumulation (99%), hepatomegaly (98%) and mucosal bleeding (93%). Factors associated with SD were persistent vomiting (Adjusted odds ratio (aOR)): 2.41), mucosal bleeding (aOR: 4.73) and haematocrit rise with rapid platelet drop (aOR: 2.74). Conclusion: A focus on sensitivity, specificity, predictive values and association of a number of particular WS should be emphasized in order to better predict severe dengue outcomes.

Keywords: severe dengue; accuracy; warning signs; prediction; Malaysia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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