Assessing the Impact of Lifestyle Interventions on Diabetes Prevention in China: A Modeling Approach

Linna Luo, Bowen Pang, Jian Chen, Yan Li and Xiaolei Xie
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Linna Luo: School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Bowen Pang: Center for Healthcare Service Research, Department of Industrial Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Jian Chen: School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Yan Li: Center for Health Innovation, The New York Academy of Medicine, New York, NY 10029, USA
Xiaolei Xie: Center for Healthcare Service Research, Department of Industrial Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

IJERPH, 2019, vol. 16, issue 10, 1-12

Abstract: China’s diabetes epidemic is getting worse. People with diabetes in China usually have a lower body weight and a different lifestyle profile compared to their counterparts in the United States (US). More and more evidence show that certain lifestyles can possibly be spread from person to person, leading some to propose considering social influence when establishing preventive policies. This study developed an innovative agent-based model of the diabetes epidemic for the Chinese population. Based on the risk factors and related complications of diabetes, the model captured individual health progression, quantitatively described the peer influence of certain lifestyles, and projected population health outcomes over a specific time period. We simulated several hypothetical interventions (i.e., improving diet, controlling smoking, improving physical activity) and assessed their impact on diabetes rates. We validated the model by comparing simulation results with external datasets. Our results showed that improving physical activity could result in the most significant decrease in diabetes prevalence compared to improving diet and controlling smoking. Our model can be used to inform policymakers on how the diabetes epidemic develops and help them compare different diabetes prevention programs in practice.

Keywords: agent-based modeling; non-communicable disease; diabetes epidemic; social influence; lifestyle interventions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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