Space–Time Relationship between Short-Term Exposure to Fine and Coarse Particles and Mortality in a Nationwide Analysis of Korea: A Bayesian Hierarchical Spatio-Temporal Model

Dayun Kang, Yujin Jang, Hyunho Choi, Seung-sik Hwang, Younseo Koo and Jungsoon Choi
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Dayun Kang: Department of Applied Statistics, Hanyang University, Seoul 04763, Korea
Yujin Jang: Department of Applied Statistics, Hanyang University, Seoul 04763, Korea
Hyunho Choi: Department of Applied Statistics, Hanyang University, Seoul 04763, Korea
Seung-sik Hwang: Department of Public Health Sciences, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea
Younseo Koo: Department of Environmental Engineering, Anyang University, Anyang 14028, Korea
Jungsoon Choi: Department of Mathematics, Hanyang University, Seoul 04763, Korea

IJERPH, 2019, vol. 16, issue 12, 1-11

Abstract: Previous studies have shown an association between mortality and ambient air pollution in South Korea. However, these studies may have been subject to bias, as they lacked adjustment for spatio-temporal structures. This paper addresses this research gap by examining the association between air pollution and cause-specific mortality in South Korea between 2012 and 2015 using a two-stage Bayesian spatio-temporal model. We used 2012–2014 mortality and air pollution data for parameter estimation (i.e., model fitting) and 2015 data for model validation. Our results suggest that the relative risks of total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality were 1.028, 1.047, and 1.045, respectively, with every 10-µg/m 3 increase in monthly PM 2.5 (fine particulate matter) exposure. These findings warrant protection of populations who experience elevated ambient air pollution exposure to mitigate mortality burden in South Korea.

Keywords: air pollution; mortality; cardiovascular disease; respiratory disease; spatio-temporal model; Poisson model; Bayesian approach (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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