Modeling and Predicting Dengue Incidence in Highly Vulnerable Countries using Panel Data Approach

Asim Anwar, Noman Khan, Muhammad Ayub, Faisal Nawaz, Asim Shah and Antoine Flahault
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Asim Anwar: Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Punjab 43600, Pakistan
Noman Khan: Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Punjab 43600, Pakistan
Muhammad Ayub: Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Punjab 43600, Pakistan
Faisal Nawaz: Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Punjab 43600, Pakistan
Asim Shah: Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Punjab 43600, Pakistan
Antoine Flahault: Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), Hirschengraben 82, 8001 Zürich, Switzerland

IJERPH, 2019, vol. 16, issue 13, 1-8

Abstract: The spread of dengue has become a major public health concern in recent times due to alarming climate change. Using country level panel data over the 2000–2017 period, this paper examines the effects of climate change and socio-economic variables on the incidence of dengue-borne diseases in some of the most highly vulnerable countries. Empirical analysis shows a positive association between climate change and socio-economic conditions in the advent of dengue-borne diseases. We find that climate change, as measured by temperature, is proactively contributing to the spread of dengue-borne diseases. However, redressing the contributive factor behind climate change, via better awareness through education and improved public health facilitation, can assist in managing the occurrences and spread of dengue-borne diseases.

Keywords: climate change; dengue; panel fixed effect model; vulnerable countries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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