Comprehensive Environmental Assessment of Potato as Staple Food Policy in China

Bing Gao, Wei Huang, Xiaobo Xue, Yuanchao Hu, Yunfeng Huang, Lan Wang, Shengping Ding and Shenghui Cui
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Bing Gao: Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China
Wei Huang: Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China
Xiaobo Xue: Department of Environmental Health Sciences, State University of New York at Albany, NY 12144, USA
Yuanchao Hu: Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China
Yunfeng Huang: School of Biotechnology Engineering, Jimei University, Xiamen 361021, China
Lan Wang: Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China
Shengping Ding: Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China
Shenghui Cui: Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China

IJERPH, 2019, vol. 16, issue 15, 1-19

Abstract: The Chinese government projected 30% of total consumed potatoes as a staple food (PSF) by 2020. We comprehensively assessed the potential impacts of PSF on rice and flour consumption, rice and wheat planting, energy and nutrient supply, irrigation-water, chemical nitrogen (N), phosphorus pentoxide (P 2 O 5 ) and potassium oxide (K 2 O) fertilizer inputs and total greenhouse gases (GHG) emission for potatoes, rice and wheat, by assuming different proportions of potato substitutes for rice and flour. The results showed that per capita, 2.9 ± 0.3 and 4.7 ± 0.5 kg more potatoes per year would enter the Chinese staple-food diet, under the government’s target. PSF consumed are expected to reach 5.2 ± 0.7 Tg yr ?1 , equivalent to substituting potatoes for 4.2 ± 0.8–8.5 ± 0.8 Tg yr ?1 wheat and 5.1 ± 0.9–10.1 ± 1.8 Tg yr ?1 rice under different scenarios. While this substitution can increase the nutrient supply index by 63% towards nutrient reference values, it may induce no significant effect on staple-food energy supply with lower chemical fertilizer (except for K 2 O) and irrigation-water inputs and GHG emissions in different substitution scenarios than the business as usual scenario. The reduction in rice and wheat demands lead to wheat in the North China Plain and early rice decrease by 6.1–11.4% and 12.1–24.1%, respectively. The total GHG reduction is equal to 1.1–9.0% of CO 2 equivalent associated with CH 4 and N 2 O emitted from the Chinese agroecosystem in 2005. The saved irrigation water for three crops compared to 2012 reaches the total water use of 17.9 ± 4.9–21.8 ± 5.9 million people in 2015. More N fertilizer, irrigation-water, and GHG can be reduced, if the PSF ratio is increased to 50% together with potato yield improves to the optimal level. Our results implied that the PSF policy is worth doing not only because of the healthier diets, but also to mitigate resource inputs and GHG emissions and it also supports agricultural structure adjustments in the areas of irrigated wheat on the North China Plain and early rice across China, designed to increase the adaptability to climate change.

Keywords: substitution ratio; chemical fertilizer inputs; irrigation-water use; total GHG emission; nutrient reference values (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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