Development of Accident Probability Index Using Surrogate Indicators of Chemical Accidents in Chemical Plants

Da-An Huh, Eun-Hae Huh, Sang-Hoon Byeon, Jong-Ryeul Sohn and Kyong Whan Moon
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Da-An Huh: Department of Health Science, Korea University, Anam-ro 145, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02841, Korea
Eun-Hae Huh: Department of Health Science, Korea University, Anam-ro 145, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02841, Korea
Sang-Hoon Byeon: Department of Health and Safety Convergence Science, Korea University, Anam-ro 145, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02841, Korea
Jong-Ryeul Sohn: Department of Health Science, Korea University, Anam-ro 145, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02841, Korea
Kyong Whan Moon: Department of Health and Safety Convergence Science, Korea University, Anam-ro 145, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02841, Korea

IJERPH, 2019, vol. 16, issue 18, 1-12

Abstract: To reduce damage caused by chemical accidents, it is important to establish a prevention system for chemical accidents. The first step in the prevention of chemical accidents is to screen the high-risk chemical plants. Risk index, one of the screening methods, can indirectly estimate the risk at each chemical plant. For calculating the risk index, the probability of an accident needs to be estimated, which requires complex calculation and confidential data from plants that are difficult to obtain. Therefore, we developed a new index, the accident probability index, to estimate accident probability in chemical plants using readily accessible data. We conducted a literature survey on the existing risk indices and interviewed chemical experts and government chemical managers to select surrogate indicators related to chemical accidents, and four indicators were chosen: hazardous characteristics of chemicals, handling volume, records of accident frequency, and national accident frequency of chemicals. We calculated the accident probability index for 4520 chemical plants, and index value means was 5.324 (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.156, 7.493). An increase by 10 in the index value denoted a 1.06-fold (95% CI: 1.04, 1.08) increase in the odds ratio for actual accident occurrence. The accident frequency of the fourth quartile of the index value was 4.30 times (95% CI: 1.72, 10.75) higher than those of the first quartile.

Keywords: accident probability index; chemical accident; risk index; surrogate indicators (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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