Shift in Potential Malaria Transmission Areas in India, Using the Fuzzy-Based Climate Suitability Malaria Transmission (FCSMT) Model under Changing Climatic Conditions

Soma Sarkar, Vinay Gangare, Poonam Singh and Ramesh C. Dhiman
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Soma Sarkar: ICMR-National Institute of Malaria Research, Dwarka sector 8, Delhi 110077, India
Vinay Gangare: ICMR-National Institute of Malaria Research, Dwarka sector 8, Delhi 110077, India
Poonam Singh: ICMR-National Institute of Malaria Research, Dwarka sector 8, Delhi 110077, India
Ramesh C. Dhiman: ICMR-National Institute of Malaria Research, Dwarka sector 8, Delhi 110077, India

IJERPH, 2019, vol. 16, issue 18, 1-16

Abstract: The future implications of climate change on malaria transmission at the global level have already been reported, however such evidences are scarce and limited in India. Here our study aims to assess, identify and map the potential effects of climate change on Plasmodium vivax ( Pv ) and Plasmodium falciparum ( Pf ) malaria transmission in India. A Fuzzy-based Climate Suitability Malaria Transmission (FCSMT) model under the GIS environment was generated using Temperature and Relative Humidity data, extracted from CORDEX South Asia for Baseline (1976–2005) and RCP 4.5 scenario for future projection by the 2030s (2021–2040). National malaria data were used at the model analysis stage. Model outcomes suggest that climate change may significantly increase the spatial spread of Pv and Pf malaria with a numerical increase in the transmission window’s (TW) months, and a shift in the months of transmission. Some areas of the western Himalayan states are likely to have new foci of Pv malaria transmission. Interior parts of some southern and eastern states are likely to become more suitable for Pf malaria transmission. Study has also identified the regions with a reduction in transmission months by the 2030s, leading to unstable malaria, and having the potential for malaria outbreaks.

Keywords: climate suitability; climate change; malaria; fuzzy sets; cordex data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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