Prediction of Human Brucellosis in China Based on Temperature and NDVI

Yongqing Zhao, Rendong Li, Juan Qiu, Xiangdong Sun, Lu Gao and Mingquan Wu
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Yongqing Zhao: Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430077, China
Rendong Li: Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430077, China
Juan Qiu: Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430077, China
Xiangdong Sun: China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center, Qingdao 266032, China
Lu Gao: China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center, Qingdao 266032, China
Mingquan Wu: The State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

IJERPH, 2019, vol. 16, issue 21, 1-15

Abstract: Brucellosis occurs periodically and causes great economic and health burdens. Brucellosis prediction plays an important role in its prevention and treatment. This paper establishes relationships between human brucellosis (HB) and land surface temperature (LST), and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (SARIMAX) model is constructed to predict trends in brucellosis rates. The fitted results (Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) = 807.58, Schwarz Bayes Criterion (SBC) = 819.28) showed obvious periodicity and a rate of increase of 138.68% from January 2011 to May 2016. We found a significant effect between HB and NDVI. At the same time, the prediction part showed that the highest monthly incidence per year has a decreasing trend after 2015. This may be because of the brucellosis prevention and control measures taken by the Chinese Government. The proposed model allows the early detection of brucellosis outbreaks, allowing more effective prevention and control.

Keywords: brucellosis; remote sensing; time-series; SARIMAX (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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