Excess Mortality in Istanbul during Extreme Heat Waves between 2013 and 2017

Günay Can, Ümit Şahin, Uğurcan Sayılı, Marjolaine Dubé, Beril Kara, Hazal Cansu Acar, Barış İnan, Özden Aksu Sayman, Germain Lebel, Ray Bustinza, Hüseyin Küçükali, Umur Güven and Pierre Gosselin
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Günay Can: Department of Public Health, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Kocamustafapasa, Fatih, 34098 Istanbul, Turkey
Ümit Şahin: Sabanci University Istanbul Policy Center, Bankalar Caddesi, No:2 Karaköy Minerva Han, 34420 Istanbul, Turkey
Uğurcan Sayılı: Department of Public Health, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Kocamustafapasa, Fatih, 34098 Istanbul, Turkey
Marjolaine Dubé: Institut national de santé publique du Québec, 945 Avenue Wolfe, Québec, QC G1V 5B3, Canada
Beril Kara: Department of Public Health, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Kocamustafapasa, Fatih, 34098 Istanbul, Turkey
Hazal Cansu Acar: Department of Public Health, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Kocamustafapasa, Fatih, 34098 Istanbul, Turkey
Barış İnan: Department of Public Health, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Kocamustafapasa, Fatih, 34098 Istanbul, Turkey
Özden Aksu Sayman: Department of Public Health, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Kocamustafapasa, Fatih, 34098 Istanbul, Turkey
Germain Lebel: Institut national de santé publique du Québec, 945 Avenue Wolfe, Québec, QC G1V 5B3, Canada
Ray Bustinza: Institut national de santé publique du Québec, 945 Avenue Wolfe, Québec, QC G1V 5B3, Canada
Hüseyin Küçükali: Department of Public Health, Istanbul Medipol University School of Medicine, Kavacık mah. Ekinciler cad. No:19 Kavacık Kavşağı, Beykoz, 34810 Istanbul, Turkey
Umur Güven: Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Kocamustafapasa, Fatih, 34098 Istanbul, Turkey
Pierre Gosselin: Institut national de santé publique du Québec and Université Laval, 945 Avenue Wolfe, Québec, QC G1V 5B3, Canada

IJERPH, 2019, vol. 16, issue 22, 1-16

Abstract: Heat waves are one of the most common direct impacts of anthropogenic climate change and excess mortality their most apparent impact. While Turkey has experienced an increase in heat wave episodes between 1971 and 2016, no epidemiological studies have examined their potential impacts on public health so far. In this study excess mortality in Istanbul attributable to extreme heat wave episodes between 2013 and 2017 is presented. Total excess deaths were calculated using mortality rates across different categories, including age, sex, and cause of death. The analysis shows that three extreme heat waves in the summer months of 2015, 2016, and 2017, which covered 14 days in total, significantly increased the mortality rate and caused 419 excess deaths in 23 days of exposure. As climate simulations show that Turkey is one of the most vulnerable countries in the Europe region to the increased intensity of heat waves until the end of the 21st century, further studies about increased mortality and morbidity risks due to heat waves in Istanbul and other cities, as well as intervention studies, are necessary.

Keywords: heat wave; mortality; cardiovascular; high temperature; Istanbul (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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