Spread of Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis of Different Factors on Spread of Infectious Disease Based on Cellular Automata

Sheng Bin, Gengxin Sun and Chih-Cheng Chen
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Sheng Bin: School of Data Science and Software Engineering, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China
Gengxin Sun: School of Data Science and Software Engineering, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China
Chih-Cheng Chen: Information and Engineering College, Jimei University, Xiamen 361021, China

IJERPH, 2019, vol. 16, issue 23, 1-16

Abstract: Infectious diseases are an important cause of human death. The study of the pathogenesis, spread regularity, and development trend of infectious diseases not only provides a theoretical basis for future research on infectious diseases, but also has practical guiding significance for the prevention and control of their spread. In this paper, a controlled differential equation and an objective function of infectious diseases were established by mathematical modeling. Based on cellular automata theory and a compartmental model, the SLIRDS (Susceptible-Latent-Infected-Recovered-Dead-Susceptible) model was constructed, a model which can better reflect the actual infectious process of infectious diseases. Considering the spread of disease in different populations, the model combines population density, sex ratio, and age structure to set the evolution rules of the model. Finally, on the basis of the SLIRDS model, the complex spread process of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) was simulated. The simulation results are similar to the macroscopic characteristics of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in real life, thus the accuracy and rationality of the SLIRDS model are confirmed.

Keywords: infectious disease dynamics; cellular automata; propagation model; pandemic influenza A; H1N1; numerical simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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