Modification Effects of Population Expansion, Ageing, and Adaptation on Heat-Related Mortality Risks Under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Guangzhou, China

Tao Liu, Zhoupeng Ren, Yonghui Zhang, Baixiang Feng, Hualiang Lin, Jianpeng Xiao, Weilin Zeng, Xing Li, Zhihao Li, Shannon Rutherford, Yanjun Xu, Shao Lin, Philip C. Nasca, Yaodong Du, Jinfeng Wang, Cunrui Huang, Peng Jia and Wenjun Ma
Additional contact information
Tao Liu: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
Zhoupeng Ren: State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Yonghui Zhang: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
Baixiang Feng: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
Hualiang Lin: School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
Jianpeng Xiao: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
Weilin Zeng: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
Xing Li: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
Zhihao Li: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
Shannon Rutherford: School of Medicine, Griffith University, Brisbane QLD 4111, Australia
Yanjun Xu: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
Shao Lin: Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University at Albany, State University of New York, One University Pl, Rensselaer, NY 12148, USA
Philip C. Nasca: Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University at Albany, State University of New York, One University Pl, Rensselaer, NY 12148, USA
Yaodong Du: Guangdong Provincial Climate Center, Guangzhou 510080, China
Jinfeng Wang: State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Cunrui Huang: School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
Peng Jia: Department of Earth Observation Science, Faculty of Geo-information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, 7500 Enschede, The Netherlands
Wenjun Ma: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China

IJERPH, 2019, vol. 16, issue 3, 1-17

Abstract: (1) Background: Although the health effects of future climate change have been examined in previous studies, few have considered additive impacts of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation. We aimed to quantify the future heat-related years of life lost ( YLLs ) under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios and global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs), and further to examine relative contributions of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation on these projections. (2) Methods: We used downscaled and bias-corrected projections of daily temperature from 27 GCMs under RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios to quantify the potential annual heat-related YLLs in Guangzhou, China in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s, compared to those in the 1980s as a baseline. We also explored the modification effects of a range of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation scenarios on the heat-related YLLs . (3) Results: Global warming, particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario, would lead to a substantial increase in the heat-related YLLs in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s for the majority of the GCMs. For the total population, the annual heat-related YLLs under the RCP8.5 in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s were 2.2, 7.0, and 11.4 thousand, respectively. The heat effects would be significantly exacerbated by rapid population expansion and ageing. However, substantial heat-related YLLs could be counteracted by the increased adaptation (75% for the total population and 20% for the elderly). (4) Conclusions: The rapid population expansion and ageing coinciding with climate change may present an important health challenge in China, which, however, could be partially counteracted by the increased adaptation of individuals.

Keywords: climate change; years of life lost; population expansion; ageing; adaptation; population health (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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