Association between Mortality and Short-Term Exposure to Particles, Ozone and Nitrogen Dioxide in Stockholm, Sweden

Henrik Olstrup, Christer Johansson, Bertil Forsberg and Christofer Åström
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Henrik Olstrup: Atmospheric Science Unit, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry, Stockholm University, 11418 Stockholm, Sweden
Christer Johansson: Atmospheric Science Unit, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry, Stockholm University, 11418 Stockholm, Sweden
Bertil Forsberg: Section of Sustainable Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, 90187 Umeå, Sweden
Christofer Åström: Section of Sustainable Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, 90187 Umeå, Sweden

IJERPH, 2019, vol. 16, issue 6, 1-14

Abstract: In this study, the effects on daily mortality in Stockholm associated with short-term exposure to ultrafine particles (measured as number of particles with a diameter larger than 4 nm, PNC 4 ), black carbon (BC) and coarse particles (PM 2.5–10 ) have been compared with the effects from more common traffic-pollution indicators (PM 10 , PM 2.5 and NO 2 ) and O 3 during the period 2000–2016. Air pollution exposure was estimated from measurements at a 20 m high building in central Stockholm. The associations between daily mortality lagged up to two days (lag 02) and the different air pollutants were modelled by using Poisson regression. The pollutants with the strongest indications of an independent effect on daily mortality were O 3 , PM 2.5–10 and PM 10 . In the single-pollutant model, an interquartile range (IQR) increase in O 3 was associated with an increase in daily mortality of 2.0% (95% CI: 1.1–3.0) for lag 01 and 1.9% (95% CI: 1.0–2.9) for lag 02. An IQR increase in PM 2.5–10 was associated with an increase in daily mortality of 0.8% (95% CI: 0.1–1.5) for lag 01 and 1.1% (95% CI: 0.4–1.8) for lag 02. PM 10 was associated with a significant increase only at lag 02, with 0.8% (95% CI: 0.08–1.4) increase in daily mortality associated with an IQR increase in the concentration. NO 2 exhibits negative associations with mortality. The significant excess risk associated with O 3 remained significant in two-pollutant models after adjustments for PM 2.5–10 , BC and NO 2 . The significant excess risk associated with PM 2.5–10 remained significant in a two-pollutant model after adjustment for NO 2 . The significantly negative associations for NO 2 remained significant in two-pollutant models after adjustments for PM 2.5–10 , O 3 and BC. A potential reason for these findings, where statistically significant excess risks were found for O 3 , PM 2.5–10 and PM 10 , but not for NO 2 , PM 2.5 , PNC 4 and BC, is behavioral factors that lead to misclassification in the exposure. The concentrations of O 3 and PM 2.5–10 are in general highest during sunny and dry days during the spring, when exposure to outdoor air tend to increase, while the opposite applies to NO 2 , PNC 4 and BC, with the highest concentrations during the short winter days with cold weather, when people are less exposed to outdoor air.

Keywords: particle number count (PNC); PM 2.5–10; exposure; mortality; ozone; excess risk; linear regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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