Modeling R 0 for Pathogens with Environmental Transmission: Animal Movements, Pathogen Populations, and Local Infectious Zones

Jason K. Blackburn, Holly H. Ganz, José Miguel Ponciano, Wendy C. Turner, Sadie J. Ryan, Pauline Kamath, Carrie Cizauskas, Kyrre Kausrud, Robert D. Holt, Nils Chr. Stenseth and Wayne M. Getz
Additional contact information
Jason K. Blackburn: Spatial Epidemiology and Ecology Research Laboratory, Department of Geography, University of Florida, 3141 Turlington Hall, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
Holly H. Ganz: Davis Genome Center, University of California, 451 Health Sciences Dr., Davis, CA 95616, USA
José Miguel Ponciano: Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
Wendy C. Turner: Department of Biological Sciences, State University of New York, 1400 Washington Avenue, Albany, NY 12222, USA
Sadie J. Ryan: Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, 2055 Mowry Road, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
Pauline Kamath: School of Food and Agriculture, University of Maine, 5763 Rogers Hall, Room 210, Orono, ME 04469, USA
Carrie Cizauskas: Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, 130 Mulford Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
Kyrre Kausrud: Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066 Blindern, 0361 Oslo, Norway
Robert D. Holt: Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
Nils Chr. Stenseth: Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066 Blindern, 0361 Oslo, Norway
Wayne M. Getz: School of Food and Agriculture, University of Maine, 5763 Rogers Hall, Room 210, Orono, ME 04469, USA

IJERPH, 2019, vol. 16, issue 6, 1-14

Abstract: How a disease is transmitted affects our ability to determine R 0 , the average number of new cases caused by an infectious host at the onset of an epidemic. R 0 becomes progressively more difficult to compute as transmission varies from directly transmitted diseases to diseases that are vector-borne to environmentally transmitted diseases. Pathogens responsible for diseases with environmental transmission are typically maintained in environmental reservoirs that exhibit a complex spatial distribution of local infectious zones (LIZs). Understanding host encounters with LIZs and pathogen persistence within LIZs is required for an accurate R 0 and modeling these contacts requires an integrated geospatial and dynamical systems approach. Here we review how interactions between host and pathogen populations and environmental reservoirs are driven by landscape-level variables, and synthesize the quantitative framework needed to formulate outbreak response and disease control.

Keywords: basic reproductive number (R 0 ); indirect disease transmission; disease emergence; disease control; pathogen spillover; animal movement (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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