Drivers and Ideal Types towards Energy Transition: Anticipating the Futures Scenarios of OECD Countries

Taewook Huh, Kee-Young Yoon and I Re Chung
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Taewook Huh: Moon Soul Graduate School of Future Strategy, Korea Advanced Institute of Science & Technology (KAIST), Daejeon 34141, Korea
Kee-Young Yoon: Department of Public Administration & Graduate School of Governance, Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul 03063, Korea
I Re Chung: Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea

IJERPH, 2019, vol. 16, issue 8, 1-16

Abstract: This study aims to identify the ideal types of energy transition of the thirty-five Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries and to explore their implications using the fuzzy-set ideal type analysis. It then anticipates the futures scenarios of OECD member countries towards energy transition by placing the ideal type results. In particular, looking at the possibility of the futures towards energy transition, this study attempts to set up the comprehensive measurement framework of energy transition embracing the three key drivers (energy system (E), energy citizenship (S), and digital technology (T)). As a result, the eight OECD countries, including Denmark (fuzzy score 0.889), UK (0.800), and Norway (0.788) belonging to Type 1 (E*S*T) with the all high features of three key drivers, are expected to have ‘Outlier (super-potent) Futures’ of energy transition. The twelve countries of Type 2 (E*S*t), 3 (E*s*T), and 5 (e*S*T) with two high features of three ones will belong to the ‘Best (reformative) Futures’. The five countries of Type 4 (E*s*t), 6 (e*S*t), and 7 (e*s*T) with one high feature among three ones will be located in ‘Business-As-Usual Futures’. Finally, the ten countries, including Hungary (fuzzy score 0.881), Greece (0.716), Israel (0.679) belonging to Type 8 (e*s*t) with all three low features, are expected to have ‘Worst (declined) Futures’ of energy transition.

Keywords: energy transition; futures scenarios; OECD countries; fuzzy-set ideal type analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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