Temporal Cross-Correlations between Ambient Air Pollutants and Seasonality of Tuberculosis: A Time-Series Analysis

Hua Wang, Changwei Tian, Wenming Wang and Xiaoming Luo
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Hua Wang: Department of Infectious Disease Control, Kunshan Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunshan 215300, China
Changwei Tian: Department of Infectious Disease Control, Kunshan Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunshan 215300, China
Wenming Wang: Department of Infectious Disease Control, Kunshan Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunshan 215300, China
Xiaoming Luo: Department of Infectious Disease Control, Kunshan Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunshan 215300, China

IJERPH, 2019, vol. 16, issue 9, 1-11

Abstract: The associations between ambient air pollutants and tuberculosis seasonality are unclear. We assessed the temporal cross-correlations between ambient air pollutants and tuberculosis seasonality. Monthly tuberculosis incidence data and ambient air pollutants (PM 2.5 , PM 10 , carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), ozone (O 3 ), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 )) and air quality index (AQI) from 2013 to 2017 in Shanghai were included. A cross-correlogram and generalized additive model were used. A 4-month delayed effect of PM 2.5 (0.55), PM 10 (0.52), SO 2 (0.47), NO 2 (0.40), CO (0.39), and AQI (0.45), and a 6-month delayed effect of O 3 (−0.38) on the incidence of tuberculosis were found. The number of tuberculosis cases increased by 8%, 4%, 18%, and 14% for a 10 μg/m 3 increment in PM 2.5 , PM 10 , SO 2 , and NO 2 ; 4% for a 10 unit increment in AQI; 8% for a 0.1 mg/m 3 increment in CO; and decreased by 4% for a 10 μg/m 3 increment in O 3 . PM 2.5 concentrations above 50 μg/m 3 , 70 μg/m 3 for PM 10 , 16 μg/m 3 for SO 2 , 47 μg/m 3 for NO 2 , 0.85 mg/m 3 for CO, and 85 for AQI, and O 3 concentrations lower than 95 μg/m 3 were positively associated with the incidence of tuberculosis. Ambient air pollutants were correlated with tuberculosis seasonality. However, this sort of study cannot prove causality.

Keywords: ambient air pollutants; cross-correlogram; generalized additive model; tuberculosis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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