Incidence and Risk Assessment for Atrial Fibrillation at 5 Years: Hypertensive Diabetic Cohort

Eulalia Muria-Subirats, Josep Lluis Clua-Espuny, Juan Ballesta-Ors, Blanca Lorman-Carbo, Iñigo Lechuga-Duran, Jose Fernández-Saez, Roger Pla-Farnos and on behalf members of AFRICAT Group
Additional contact information
Eulalia Muria-Subirats: Department of Primary Care, Catalonian Health Institute, Institute for Research in Primary Health Care Jordi Gol i Gurina (IDIAPJGol) Rovira i Virgili University, 43500 Tortosa, Spain
Josep Lluis Clua-Espuny: Department of Primary Care, Catalonian Health Institute, Institute for Research in Primary Health Care Jordi Gol i Gurina (IDIAPJGol) Rovira i Virgili University, 43500 Tortosa, Spain
Juan Ballesta-Ors: Department of Primary Care, UUDD Terres de l’Ebre-Tortosa, Catalonian Health Institute, 43500 Tortosa, Spain
Blanca Lorman-Carbo: Department of Primary Care, UUDD Terres de l’Ebre-Tortosa, Catalonian Health Institute, 43500 Tortosa, Spain
Iñigo Lechuga-Duran: Department of Cardiology, Catalonian Health Institute, Hospital Verge de la Cinta, Institut de Recerca Sanitària Pere Virgili (IISPV), 43500 Tortosa, Spain
Jose Fernández-Saez: Unitat de Suport a la Recerca Terres de l’Ebre, Fundació Institut Universitari per a la recerca a l’Atenció Primària de Salut Jordi Gol i Gurina (IDIAPJGol), 43500 Tortosa, Spain
Roger Pla-Farnos: Primary Care Research Group, Department of Medicine and Surgery, Rovira I Virgili University, 43003 Tarragona, Spain
on behalf members of AFRICAT Group: AFRICAT Research Group, Institute for Research in Primary Health Care Jordi Gol i Gurina (IDIAPJGol), Gran Via de les Corts Catalanes, 587, 08007 Barcelona, Spain

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 10, 1-11

Abstract: (1) Background: The link between diabetes and hypertension is mutual and reciprocal, increasing the risks for the development of atrial fibrillation (AF). The main objective was to develop a prediction model for AF in a population with both diabetes and hypertension at five years of follow-up. (2) Methods: A multicenter and community-based cohort study was undertaken of 8237 hypertensive diabetic patients without AF between 1 January 2103 and 31 December 2017. Multivariate Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to identify predictors AF and to stratify risk scores by quartiles. (3) Results: AF incidence was 10.5/1000 people/years (95% confidence interval (CI) 9.5–11.5), higher in men. The independent prognostic factors identified: age (hazard ratio (HR) 1.07 95% CI 1.05–1.09, p < 0.001), weight (HR 1.03 95% CI 1.02–1.04, p < 0.001), CHA 2 DS 2 VASc score (HR 1.57 95% CI 1.16–2.13, p = 0.003) and female gender (HR 0.55 95% CI 0.37–0.82, p = 0.004). Q4 (highest-risk group for AF) had the highest AF incidence, stroke and mortality, and the smallest number needed to screen to detect one case of AF. (4) Conclusions: Risk-based screening for AF should be used in high cardiovascular risk patients as the hypertensive diabetics, for treatment of modifiable cardiovascular risk, and monitoring AF detection.

Keywords: risk assessment; hypertensive; diabetes; Atrial Fibrillation; stroke; Chronic diseases; cohort study (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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