Predicting the Epidemiological Outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Saudi Arabia

Dabiah Alboaneen, Bernardi Pranggono, Dhahi Alshammari, Nourah Alqahtani and Raja Alyaffer
Additional contact information
Dabiah Alboaneen: Computer Science Department, College of Science and Humanities in Jubail, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Jubail P.O. Box 31961, Saudi Arabia
Bernardi Pranggono: Department of Engineering and Mathematics, Sheffield Hallam University, Sheffield S1 1WB, UK
Dhahi Alshammari: Computer Science and Information Department, College of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Ha’il, Hail 8145, Saudi Arabia
Nourah Alqahtani: Computer Science Department, College of Science and Humanities in Jubail, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Jubail P.O. Box 31961, Saudi Arabia
Raja Alyaffer: Computer Science Department, College of Science and Humanities in Jubail, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Jubail P.O. Box 31961, Saudi Arabia

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 12, 1-10

Abstract: The coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak continues to spread rapidly across the world and has been declared as pandemic by World Health Organization (WHO). Saudi Arabia was among the countries that was affected by the deadly and contagious virus. Using a real-time data from 2 March 2020 to 15 May 2020 collected from Saudi Ministry of Health, we aimed to give a local prediction of the epidemic in Saudi Arabia. We used two models: the Logistic Growth and the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered for real-time forecasting the confirmed cases of COVID-19 across Saudi Arabia. Our models predicted that the epidemics of COVID-19 will have total cases of 69,000 to 79,000 cases. The simulations also predicted that the outbreak will entering the final-phase by end of June 2020.

Keywords: 2019 novel coronavirus; COVID-19; Saudi Arabia; logistic growth model; SIR model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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