Spatio-Temporal Dynamic of Malaria Incidence: A Comparison of Two Ecological Zones in Mali

François Freddy Ateba, Issaka Sagara, Nafomon Sogoba, Mahamoudou Touré, Drissa Konaté, Sory Ibrahim Diawara, Séidina Aboubacar Samba Diakité, Ayouba Diarra, Mamadou D. Coulibaly, Mathias Dolo, Amagana Dolo, Aissata Sacko, Sidibe M’baye Thiam, Aliou Sissako, Lansana Sangaré, Mahamadou Diakité, Ousmane A. Koita, Mady Cissoko, Sékou Fantamady Traore, Peter John Winch, Manuel Febrero-Bande, Jeffrey G. Shaffer, Donald J. Krogtad, Hannah Catherine Marker, Seydou Doumbia and Jean Gaudart
Additional contact information
François Freddy Ateba: Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali
Issaka Sagara: Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali
Nafomon Sogoba: Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali
Mahamoudou Touré: Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali
Drissa Konaté: Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali
Sory Ibrahim Diawara: Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali
Séidina Aboubacar Samba Diakité: Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali
Ayouba Diarra: Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali
Mamadou D. Coulibaly: Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali
Mathias Dolo: Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali
Amagana Dolo: Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali
Aissata Sacko: Department of Public Health Education and Research, Faculty of Medicine and Odonto-Stomatology, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali
Sidibe M’baye Thiam: Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali
Aliou Sissako: Laboratory of Applied Molecular Biology (LBMA), Science and Technologies Faculty (FST), University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali
Lansana Sangaré: Laboratory of Applied Molecular Biology (LBMA), Science and Technologies Faculty (FST), University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali
Mahamadou Diakité: Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali
Ousmane A. Koita: Laboratory of Applied Molecular Biology (LBMA), Science and Technologies Faculty (FST), University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali
Mady Cissoko: Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali
Sékou Fantamady Traore: Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali
Peter John Winch: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA
Manuel Febrero-Bande: Department of Statistics, Mathematical Analysis and Optimization, University of Santiago de Compostela, 15782 Santiago de Compostela, Spain
Jeffrey G. Shaffer: Department of Global Biostatistics and Data Science, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, Louisiana, United States of America, 1440 Canal Street New Orleans, LA 70112, USA
Donald J. Krogtad: Department of Global Biostatistics and Data Science, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, Louisiana, United States of America, 1440 Canal Street New Orleans, LA 70112, USA
Hannah Catherine Marker: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA
Seydou Doumbia: Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali
Jean Gaudart: Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 13, 1-21

Abstract: Malaria transmission largely depends on environmental, climatic, and hydrological conditions. In Mali, malaria epidemiological patterns are nested within three ecological zones. This study aimed at assessing the relationship between those conditions and the incidence of malaria in Dangassa and Koila, Mali. Malaria data was collected through passive case detection at community health facilities of each study site from June 2015 to January 2017. Climate and environmental data were obtained over the same time period from the Goddard Earth Sciences (Giovanni) platform and hydrological data from Mali hydraulic services. A generalized additive model was used to determine the lagged time between each principal component analysis derived component and the incidence of malaria cases, and also used to analyze the relationship between malaria and the lagged components in a multivariate approach. Malaria transmission patterns were bimodal at both sites, but peak and lull periods were longer lasting for Koila study site. Temperatures were associated with malaria incidence in both sites. In Dangassa, the wind speed ( p = 0.005) and river heights ( p = 0.010) contributed to increasing malaria incidence, in contrast to Koila, where it was humidity ( p < 0.001) and vegetation ( p = 0.004). The relationships between environmental factors and malaria incidence differed between the two settings, implying different malaria dynamics and adjustments in the conception and plan of interventions.

Keywords: malaria; generalized additive models; geo-epidemiology; lag; normalized difference vegetation index; principal components analysis; passive case detection; plasmodium falciparum (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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