Estimating the Magnitude of Illicit Cigarette Trade in Bangladesh: Protocol for a Mixed-Methods Study

S. M. Abdullah, Rumana Huque, Linda Bauld, Hana Ross, Anna Gilmore, Rijo M. John, Fiona Dobbie and Kamran Siddiqi
Additional contact information
S. M. Abdullah: Department of Economics, University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh
Rumana Huque: Department of Economics, University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh
Linda Bauld: Usher Institute, Old Medical School, University of Edinburgh, Teviot Place, Edinburgh EH8 PAG, UK
Hana Ross: School of Economics, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch, Cape Town 7701, South Africa
Anna Gilmore: Department for Health, University of Bath, Claverton Down, Bath BA2 7AY, UK
Rijo M. John: Centre for Public Policy Research, Ernakulam, Kerala 682020, India
Fiona Dobbie: Usher Institute, Old Medical School, University of Edinburgh, Teviot Place, Edinburgh EH8 PAG, UK
Kamran Siddiqi: Department of Health Sciences, University of York, Heslington, York YO10 5DD, UK

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 13, 1-14

Abstract: The illicit tobacco trade undermines the effectiveness of tobacco tax policies; increases the availability of cheap cigarettes, which, in turn, increases tobacco use and tobacco related deaths; and causes huge revenue losses to governments. There is limited evidence on the extent of illicit tobacco trade particularly cigarettes in Bangladesh. The paper presents the protocol for a mixed-methods study to estimate the extent of illicit cigarette trade in Bangladesh. The study will address three research questions: (a) What proportion of cigarettes sold as retail are illicit? (b) What are the common types of tax avoidance and tax evasion? (c) Can pack examination from the trash recycle market be considered as a new method to assess illicit trade in comparison to that from retailers and streets? Following an observational research method, data will be collected utilizing empty cigarette packs from three sources: (a) retailers; (b) streets; and (c) trash recycle market. In addition, a structured questionnaire will be used to collect information from retailers selling cigarettes. We will select post codes as Primary Sampling Unit (PSU) using a multi-stage random sampling technique. We will randomly select eight districts from eight divisions stratified by those with land border and non-land border; and within each district, we will randomly select ten postcodes, stratified by rural (five) and urban (five) PSU to ensure maximum geographical variation, leading to a total of eighty post codes from eight districts. The analysis will report the proportions of packs that do not comply with the study definition of illicit. Independent estimates of illicit tobacco are rare in low- and middle-income countries such as Bangladesh. Findings will inform efforts by revenue authorities and others to address the effects of illicit trade and counter tobacco industry claims.

Keywords: tobacco; smoking; illicit trade; low- and middle-income countries; Bangladesh (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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