Moving Average Based Index for Judging the Peak of the COVID-19 Epidemic

Yunting He, Xiaojin Wang, Hao He, Jing Zhai and Bingshun Wang
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Yunting He: School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China
Xiaojin Wang: Department of Biostatistics, Clinical Research Institute, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China
Hao He: School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China
Jing Zhai: School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China
Bingshun Wang: Department of Biostatistics, Clinical Research Institute, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 15, 1-14

Abstract: A pneumonia outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has spread around the world. A total of 2,314,621 laboratory-confirmed cases, including 157,847 deaths (6.8%) were reported globally by 20 April 2020. Common symptoms of COVID-19 pneumonia include fever, fatigue, and dry cough. Faced with such a sudden outbreak of emerging infectious disease, traditional models for predicting the peak of the epidemic often show inconsistent results. With the aim to timely judge the epidemic peak and provide support for decisions for resuming production and returning to normal life based on publicly reported data, we used a seven-day moving average of log-transformed daily new cases (LMA) to establish a new index named the “epidemic evaluation index” (EEI). We used SARS epidemic data from Hong Kong to verify the practicability of the new index, and then applied it to the COVID-19 epidemic analysis. The results showed that the epidemic peaked, respectively, on 9 February and 5 February 2020, in Hubei Province and other provinces in China. The proposed index can be applied for judging the epidemic peak. While the global COVID-19 epidemic reached its peak in the middle of April, the epidemic peaks in some countries have not yet appeared. Global and united efforts are still needed to eventually eliminate the epidemic.

Keywords: novel coronavirus COVID-19; infectious diseases; moving average; epidemic peak; epidemic evaluation; epidemic (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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