Risk Assessment of High-Speed Rail Projects: A Risk Coupling Model Based on System Dynamics

Yutong Xue, Pengcheng Xiang, Fuyuan Jia and Zhaowen Liu
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Yutong Xue: School of Management Science & Real Estate, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, China
Pengcheng Xiang: School of Management Science & Real Estate, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, China
Fuyuan Jia: School of Management Science & Real Estate, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, China
Zhaowen Liu: Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, 2628CN Delft, The Netherlands

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 15, 1-27

Abstract: Due to their characteristics and multiple objectives, high-speed rail (HSR) projects carry more complex risks than conventional projects and high correlation and conductivity are among the associated risk factors. Previous risk assessment frameworks for rail infrastructure have ignored the effects of risk interactions that inflate risk levels, namely, risk coupling effects. Based on a system dynamics method, this paper develops a risk coupling model for HSR project risk assessments. A risk factor list is established from a literature review, and relationships analysed using a case study and expert interviews. System dynamics equations are constructed and their parameters obtained by expert evaluations of risk factors. The proposed model is applied to a real-world HSR project to demonstrate it in detail. The model can evaluate the risk levels of HSR projects during a simulation period. In particular, it can identify the key coupling effects that are the main increased risk. It provides a significant resource, using which HSR project managers can identify and mitigate risks.

Keywords: high-speed rail; risk assessment; dynamic risk; risk coupling; risk interaction; system dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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