Modelling the Effectiveness of Epidemic Control Measures in Preventing the Transmission of COVID-19 in Malaysia

Balvinder Singh Gill, Vivek Jason Jayaraj, Sarbhan Singh, Sumarni Mohd Ghazali, Yoon Ling Cheong, Nuur Hafizah Md Iderus, Bala Murali Sundram, Tahir Bin Aris, Hishamshah Mohd Ibrahim, Boon Hao Hong and Jane Labadin
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Balvinder Singh Gill: Institute for Medical Research (IMR), Ministry of Health, Kuala Lumpur 50588, Malaysia
Vivek Jason Jayaraj: Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Medical Faculty, University Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
Sarbhan Singh: Institute for Medical Research (IMR), Ministry of Health, Kuala Lumpur 50588, Malaysia
Sumarni Mohd Ghazali: Institute for Medical Research (IMR), Ministry of Health, Kuala Lumpur 50588, Malaysia
Yoon Ling Cheong: Institute for Medical Research (IMR), Ministry of Health, Kuala Lumpur 50588, Malaysia
Nuur Hafizah Md Iderus: Institute for Medical Research (IMR), Ministry of Health, Kuala Lumpur 50588, Malaysia
Bala Murali Sundram: Institute for Medical Research (IMR), Ministry of Health, Kuala Lumpur 50588, Malaysia
Tahir Bin Aris: Institute for Medical Research (IMR), Ministry of Health, Kuala Lumpur 50588, Malaysia
Hishamshah Mohd Ibrahim: Ministry of Health, Malaysia, Putrajaya 62590, Malaysia
Boon Hao Hong: Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, Kota Samarahan 94300, Malaysia
Jane Labadin: Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, Kota Samarahan 94300, Malaysia

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 15, 1-13

Abstract: Malaysia is currently facing an outbreak of COVID-19. We aim to present the first study in Malaysia to report the reproduction numbers and develop a mathematical model forecasting COVID-19 transmission by including isolation, quarantine, and movement control measures. We utilized a susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered (SEIR) model by incorporating isolation, quarantine, and movement control order (MCO) taken in Malaysia. The simulations were fitted into the Malaysian COVID-19 active case numbers, allowing approximation of parameters consisting of probability of transmission per contact ( β ), average number of contacts per day per case ( ζ ), and proportion of close-contact traced per day ( q ). The effective reproduction number (R t ) was also determined through this model. Our model calibration estimated that ( β ), ( ζ ), and ( q ) were 0.052, 25 persons, and 0.23, respectively. The (R t ) was estimated to be 1.68. MCO measures reduce the peak number of active COVID-19 cases by 99.1% and reduce ( ζ ) from 25 (pre-MCO) to 7 (during MCO). The flattening of the epidemic curve was also observed with the implementation of these control measures. We conclude that isolation, quarantine, and MCO measures are essential to break the transmission of COVID-19 in Malaysia.

Keywords: COVID-19; mathematical modeling; susceptible; exposed; infectious; and recovered (SEIR); isolation; movement (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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