Influential Factors Associated with Consecutive Crash Severity: A Two-Level Logistic Modeling Approach

Fanyu Meng, Pengpeng Xu, Cancan Song, Kun Gao, Zichu Zhou and Lili Yang
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Fanyu Meng: Academy for Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518000, China
Pengpeng Xu: Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China
Cancan Song: Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China
Kun Gao: Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology, 41296 Göteborg, Sweden
Zichu Zhou: Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China
Lili Yang: Department of Statistics and Data Science, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518000, China

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 15, 1-16

Abstract: A consecutive crash series is composed by a primary crash and one or more subsequent secondary crashes that occur immediately within a certain distance. The crash mechanism of a consecutive crash series is distinctive, as it is different from common primary and secondary crashes mainly caused by queuing effects and chain-reaction crashes that involve multiple collisions in one crash. It commonly affects a large area of road space and possibly causes congestions and significant delays in evacuation and clearance. This study identified the influential factors determining the severity of primary and secondary crashes in a consecutive crash series. Basic, random-effects, random-parameters, and two-level binary logistic regression models were established based on crash data collected on the freeway network of Guizhou Province, China in 2018, of which 349 were identified as consecutive crashes. According to the model performance metrics, the two-level logistic model outperformed the other three models. On the crash level, double-vehicle primary crash had a negative association with the severity of secondary consecutive crashes, and the involvement of trucks in the secondary consecutive crash had a positive contribution to its crash severity. On a road segment level, speed limit, traffic volume, tunnel, and extreme weather conditions such as rainy and cloudy days had positive effects on consecutive crash severity, while the number of lanes was negatively associated with consecutive crash severity. Policy suggestions are made to alleviate the severity of consecutive crashes by reminding the drivers with real-time potential hazards of severe consecutive crashes and providing educative programs to specific groups of drivers.

Keywords: consecutive crash; crash severity; traffic hazard; multi-level model; unobserved heterogeneity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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