Effectiveness of Social Measures against COVID-19 Outbreaks in Selected Japanese Regions Analyzed by System Dynamic Modeling

Makoto Niwa, Yasushi Hara, Shintaro Sengoku and Kota Kodama
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Makoto Niwa: Graduate School of Technology Management, Ritsumeikan University, Osaka 567-8570, Japan
Yasushi Hara: TDB Center for Advanced Empirical Research on Enterprise and Economy, Faculty of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo 186-8603, Japan
Shintaro Sengoku: Life Style by Design Research Unit, Institute for Future Initiatives, the University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-0033, Japan
Kota Kodama: Graduate School of Technology Management, Ritsumeikan University, Osaka 567-8570, Japan

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 17, 1-12

Abstract: In Japan’s response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), virus testing was limited to symptomatic patients due to limited capacity, resulting in uncertainty regarding the spread of infection and the appropriateness of countermeasures. System dynamic modelling, comprised of stock flow and infection modelling, was used to describe regional population dynamics and estimate assumed region-specific transmission rates. The estimated regional transmission rates were then mapped against actual patient data throughout the course of the interventions. This modelling, together with simulation studies, demonstrated the effectiveness of inbound traveler quarantine and resident self-isolation policies and practices. A causal loop approach was taken to link societal factors to infection control measures. This causal loop modelling suggested that the only effective measure against COVID-19 transmission in the Japanese context was intervention in the early stages of the outbreak by national and regional governments, and no social self-strengthening dynamics were demonstrated. These findings may contribute to an understanding of how social resilience to future infectious disease threats can be developed.

Keywords: COVID-19; system dynamics; new infectious disease (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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