Implications of Projected Hydroclimatic Change for Tularemia Outbreaks in High-Risk Areas across Sweden

Yan Ma, Guillaume Vigouroux, Zahra Kalantari, Romain Goldenberg and Georgia Destouni
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Yan Ma: Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Guillaume Vigouroux: Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Zahra Kalantari: Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Romain Goldenberg: Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Georgia Destouni: Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 18, 1-13

Abstract: Hydroclimatic change may affect the range of some infectious diseases, including tularemia. Previous studies have investigated associations between tularemia incidence and climate variables, with some also establishing quantitative statistical disease models based on historical data, but studies considering future climate projections are scarce. This study has used and combined hydro-climatic projection outputs from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), and site-specific, parameterized statistical tularemia models, which all imply some type of power-law scaling with preceding-year tularemia cases, to assess possible future trends in disease outbreaks for six counties across Sweden, known to include tularemia high-risk areas. Three radiative forcing (emissions) scenarios are considered for climate change projection until year 2100, incuding low (2.6 Wm −2 ), medium (4.5 Wm −2 ), and high (8.5 Wm −2 ) forcing. The results show highly divergent changes in future disease outbreaks among Swedish counties, depending primarily on site-specific type of the best-fit disease power-law scaling characteristics of (mostly positive, in one case negative) sub- or super-linearity. Results also show that scenarios of steeper future climate warming do not necessarily lead to steeper increase of future disease outbreaks. Along a latitudinal gradient, the likely most realistic medium climate forcing scenario indicates future disease decreases (intermittent or overall) for the relatively southern Swedish counties Örebro and Gävleborg (Ockelbo), respectively, and disease increases of considerable or high degree for the intermediate (Dalarna, Gävleborg (Ljusdal)) and more northern (Jämtland, Norrbotten; along with the more southern Värmland exception) counties, respectively.

Keywords: hydroclimatic change; infectious disease; tularemia; CMIP6 projections; high-risk sites; Sweden (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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