Data Analytics for Predicting COVID-19 Cases in Top Affected Countries: Observations and Recommendations

Abdelrahman E. E. Eltoukhy, Ibrahim Abdelfadeel Shaban, Felix T. S. Chan and Mohammad A. M. Abdel-Aal
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Abdelrahman E. E. Eltoukhy: Systems Engineering Department, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia
Ibrahim Abdelfadeel Shaban: Faculty of Engineering, Helwan University, Helwan 11795, Egypt
Felix T. S. Chan: Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
Mohammad A. M. Abdel-Aal: Systems Engineering Department, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 19, 1-25

Abstract: The outbreak of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has adversely affected many countries in the world. The unexpected large number of COVID-19 cases has disrupted the healthcare system in many countries and resulted in a shortage of bed spaces in the hospitals. Consequently, predicting the number of COVID-19 cases is imperative for governments to take appropriate actions. The number of COVID-19 cases can be accurately predicted by considering historical data of reported cases alongside some external factors that affect the spread of the virus. In the literature, most of the existing prediction methods focus only on the historical data and overlook most of the external factors. Hence, the number of COVID-19 cases is inaccurately predicted. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to simultaneously consider historical data and the external factors. This can be accomplished by adopting data analytics, which include developing a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous input (NARX) neural network-based algorithm. The viability and superiority of the developed algorithm are demonstrated by conducting experiments using data collected for top five affected countries in each continent. The results show an improved accuracy when compared with existing methods. Moreover, the experiments are extended to make future prediction for the number of patients afflicted with COVID-19 during the period from August 2020 until September 2020. By using such predictions, both the government and people in the affected countries can take appropriate measures to resume pre-epidemic activities.

Keywords: COVID-19; pandemic; data analytics; neural network (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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