A Quantitative Study on Crucial Food Supplies after the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Based on Time Series Analysis

Xiaoxin Zhu, Yanyan Wang, David Regan and Baiqing Sun
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Xiaoxin Zhu: School of Business, Qingdao University of Technology, Qingdao 266525, China
Yanyan Wang: School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
David Regan: School of Foreign Studies, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao 266580, China
Baiqing Sun: School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 19, 1-13

Abstract: Awareness of the requested quantity and characteristics of emergency supplies is crucial for facilitating an efficient relief operation. With the aim of focusing on the quantitative study of immediate food supplies, this article estimates the numerical autoregressive integrative moving average (ARIMA) model based on the actual data of 14 key commodities in the Sendai City of Japan during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Although the temporal patterns of key food commodity groups are qualitatively similar, the results show that they follow different ARIMA processes, with different autoregressive moving averages and difference order patterns. A key finding is that 3 of the 14 items are significantly related to the number of temporary residents in shelters, revealing that the relatively low number of different items makes it easier to deploy these key supplies or develop regional purchase agreements so as to promptly obtain them from distributors.

Keywords: natural disaster; emergency response; food supplies; time series analysis; Tohoku earthquake (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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