Potential Effects on Travelers’ Air Pollution Exposure and Associated Mortality Estimated for a Mode Shift from Car to Bicycle Commuting

Johan Nilsson Sommar, Christer Johansson, Boel Lövenheim, Anders Markstedt, Magnus Strömgren and Bertil Forsberg
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Johan Nilsson Sommar: Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå, Sweden
Christer Johansson: Department of Environmental Science, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Boel Lövenheim: Environment and Health Administration, SLB, 104 20 Stockholm, Sweden
Anders Markstedt: WSP Civils, 121 88 Stockholm, Sweden
Magnus Strömgren: Department of Geography, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå, Sweden
Bertil Forsberg: Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå, Sweden

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 20, 1-16

Abstract: This study aims to use dispersion-modeled concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and black carbon (BC) to estimate bicyclist exposures along a network of roads and bicycle paths. Such modeling was also performed in a scenario with increased bicycling. Accumulated concentrations between home and work were thereafter calculated for both bicyclists and drivers of cars. A transport model was used to estimate traffic volumes and current commuting preferences in Stockholm County. The study used individuals’ home and work addresses, their age, sex, and an empirical model estimate of their expected physical capacity in order to establish realistic bicycle travel distances. If car commuters with estimated physical capacity to bicycle to their workplace within 30 min changed their mode of transport to bicycle, >110,000 additional bicyclists would be achieved. Time-weighted mean concentrations along paths were, among current bicyclists, reduced from 25.8 to 24.2 μg/m 3 for NOx and 1.14 to 1.08 μg/m 3 for BC. Among the additional bicyclists, the yearly mean NOx dose from commuting increased from 0.08 to 1.03 μg/m 3 . This would be expected to yearly cause 0.10 fewer deaths for current bicycling levels and 1.7 more deaths for additional bicycling. This increased air pollution impact is much smaller than the decrease in the total population.

Keywords: air pollution; vehicle emissions; bicycle; bicyclist exposure; human health (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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