COVID-19 Spread in Saudi Arabia: Modeling, Simulation and Analysis

Hend Alrasheed, Alhanoof Althnian, Heba Kurdi, Heila Al-Mgren and Sulaiman Alharbi
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Hend Alrasheed: Department of Information Technology, College of Computer and Information Sciences, King Saud University, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia
Alhanoof Althnian: Department of Information Technology, College of Computer and Information Sciences, King Saud University, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia
Heba Kurdi: Department of Computer Science, College of Computer and Information Sciences, King Saud University, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia
Heila Al-Mgren: Department of Software Engineering, College of Computer and Information Sciences, King Saud University, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia
Sulaiman Alharbi: Department of Botany and Microbiology, College of Sciences, King Saud University, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 21, 1-24

Abstract: The novel coronavirus Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)-Coronavirus-2 (CoV-2) has resulted in an ongoing pandemic and has affected over 200 countries around the world. Mathematical epidemic models can be used to predict the course of an epidemic and develop methods for controlling it. As social contact is a key factor in disease spreading, modeling epidemics on contact networks has been increasingly used. In this work, we propose a simulation model for the spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Saudi Arabia using a network-based epidemic model. We generated a contact network that captures realistic social behaviors and dynamics of individuals in Saudi Arabia. The proposed model was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the control measures employed by the Saudi government, to predict the future dynamics of the disease in Saudi Arabia according to different scenarios, and to investigate multiple vaccination strategies. Our results suggest that Saudi Arabia would have faced a nationwide peak of the outbreak on 21 April 2020 with a total of approximately 26 million infections had it not imposed strict control measures. The results also indicate that social distancing plays a crucial role in determining the future local dynamics of the epidemic. Our results also show that the closure of schools and mosques had the maximum impact on delaying the epidemic peak and slowing down the infection rate. If a vaccine does not become available and no social distancing is practiced from 10 June 2020, our predictions suggest that the epidemic will end in Saudi Arabia at the beginning of November with over 13 million infected individuals, and it may take only 15 days to end the epidemic after 70% of the population receive a vaccine.

Keywords: COVID-19; simulation model; network-based epidemic model; contact network; node susceptibility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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