Simulating the Impact of Future Climate Change and Ecological Restoration on Trade-Offs and Synergies of Ecosystem Services in Two Ecological Shelters and Three Belts in China

Liang-Jie Wang, Shuai Ma, Yong-Peng Qiao and Jin-Chi Zhang
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Liang-Jie Wang: Co-Innovation Center of Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Jiangsu Provincial Key Lab of Soil Erosion and Ecological Restoration, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China
Shuai Ma: Co-Innovation Center of Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Jiangsu Provincial Key Lab of Soil Erosion and Ecological Restoration, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China
Yong-Peng Qiao: School of Computer Science and Engineering, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110006, China
Jin-Chi Zhang: Co-Innovation Center of Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Jiangsu Provincial Key Lab of Soil Erosion and Ecological Restoration, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 21, 1-26

Abstract: Development of suitable ecological protection and restoration policies for sustainable management needs to assess the potential impacts of future land use and climate change on ecosystem services. The two ecological shelters and three belts (TSTB) are significant for improving ecosystem services and ensuring China’s and global ecological security. In this study, we simulated land use in 2050 and estimated the spatial distribution pattern of net primary productivity (NPP), water yield, and soil conservation from 2010 to 2050 under future climate change. The results showed that water yield, NPP, and soil conservation exhibited a spatial pattern of decreasing from southeast to northwest, while in terms of the temporal pattern, water yield and NPP increased, but soil conservation decreased. Water yield was mainly influenced by precipitation, NPP was affected by temperature and implementation of ecological restoration, and soil conservation was controlled by precipitation and slope. There was a strong spatial heterogeneity between trade-offs and synergies. In terms of the temporal, with the combination of climate change and ecological restoration, there was a synergistic relationship between water yield and NPP. However, the relationships between water yield and soil conservation, and between NPP and soil conservation were characterized by trade-offs. In the process of ecological construction, it is necessary to consider the differences between overall and local trade-offs and synergies, as well as formulate sustainable ecological management policies according to local conditions. Understanding the response of ecosystem services to future climate change and land use policies can help address the challenges posed by climate change and achieve sustainable management of natural resources.

Keywords: ecosystem services; climate change; ecological restoration; trade-offs/synergies; sustainable management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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