Health Impact of Air Pollution from Shipping in the Baltic Sea: Effects of Different Spatial Resolutions in Sweden

Nandi S. Mwase, Alicia Ekström, Jan Eiof Jonson, Erik Svensson, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Janine Wichmann, Peter Molnár and Leo Stockfelt
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Nandi S. Mwase: School of Health Systems and Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South Africa
Alicia Ekström: Occupational and Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Institute of Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Box 100, 405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden
Jan Eiof Jonson: Division for Climate Modelling and Air Pollution, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, NO 0313 Oslo, Norway
Erik Svensson: The Environmental Department, City of Gothenburg, PO Box 7012, 402 31 Gothenburg, Sweden
Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen: Air Quality Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, PL 503, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Janine Wichmann: School of Health Systems and Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South Africa
Peter Molnár: Occupational and Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Institute of Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Box 100, 405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden
Leo Stockfelt: Department of Infection Diseases, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, SE-405 30 Goteborg, Sweden

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 21, 1-16

Abstract: In 2015, stricter regulations to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions and particulate air pollution from shipping were implemented in the Baltic Sea. We investigated the effects on population exposure to particles <2.5 µm (PM 2.5 ) from shipping and estimated related morbidity and mortality in Sweden’s 21 counties at different spatial resolutions. We used a regional model to estimate exposure in Sweden and a city-scale model for Gothenburg. Effects of PM 2.5 exposure on total mortality, ischemic heart disease, and stroke were estimated using exposure–response functions from the literature and combining them into disability-adjusted life years (DALYS). PM 2.5 exposure from shipping in Gothenburg decreased by 7% (1.6 to 1.5 µg/m 3 ) using the city-scale model, and 35% (0.5 to 0.3 µg/m 3 ) using the regional model. Different population resolutions had no effects on population exposures. In the city-scale model, annual premature deaths due to shipping PM 2.5 dropped from 97 with the high-sulfur scenario to 90 in the low-sulfur scenario, and in the regional model from 32 to 21. In Sweden, DALYs lost due to PM 2.5 from Baltic Sea shipping decreased from approximately 5700 to 4200. In conclusion, sulfur emission restrictions for shipping had positive effects on health, but the model resolution affects estimations.

Keywords: PM 2.5; SECA; EMEP model; population exposure; health effects; myocardial infarction; heart attack; stroke; air pollutants (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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