Analyzing Land-Use Change Scenarios for Ecosystem Services and their Trade-Offs in the Ecological Conservation Area in Beijing, China

Zuzheng Li, Xiaoqin Cheng and Hairong Han
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Zuzheng Li: School of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
Xiaoqin Cheng: School of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
Hairong Han: School of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 22, 1-20

Abstract: It is generally believed that land-use changes can affect a variety of ecosystem services (ES), but the relationships involved remain unclear due to a lack of systematic knowledge and gaps in data. In order to make rational decisions for land-use planning that is grounded in a systematic understanding of trade-offs between different land-use strategies, it is very important to understand the response mechanisms of various ecosystem services to changes in land-use. Therefore, the objective of our study is to assess the effects of land-use change on six ecosystem services and their trade-offs among the ecosystem services in the ecological conservation area (ECA) in Beijing, China. To do this, we projected future land-use in 2030 under three different scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), Ecological Protection (ELP), and Rapid Urban Development (RUD), using GeoSOS-FLUS model. Then, we quantified six ecosystem services (carbon storage, soil conservation, water purification, habitat quality, flood regulation, and food production) in response to land-use changes from 2015 to 2030, using a spatially explicit InVEST model. Finally, we illustrated the trade-offs and/or synergistic relationships between each ecosystem service quantified under each of the different scenarios in 2030. Results showed that built-up land is projected to increase by 281.18 km 2 at the cost of water bodies and cultivated land from 2015 to 2030 under the RUD scenario, while forest land is projected to increase by 152.38 km 2 under the ELP scenario. The carbon storage, soil conservation, habitat quality, and the sum of ecosystem services (SES) would enrich the highest level under the ELP scenario. Land-use strategies that follow the ELP scenario can better maintain the ecosystem services and sustainable development of natural and social economic systems.

Keywords: ecosystem services; land-use changes; GeoSOS-FLUS; InVEST (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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