COVID-19 Down Under: Australia’s Initial Pandemic Experience

Matthew James Cook, Gabriela Guizzo Dri, Prishanee Logan, Jia Bin Tan and Antoine Flahault
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Matthew James Cook: Global Studies Institute, University of Geneva, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland
Gabriela Guizzo Dri: Global Studies Institute, University of Geneva, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland
Prishanee Logan: Global Studies Institute, University of Geneva, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland
Jia Bin Tan: Global Studies Institute, University of Geneva, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland
Antoine Flahault: Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 23, 1-19

Abstract: The following case study aims to provide a broad overview of the initial Australian epidemiological situation of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. We provide a case presentation of Australia’s current demographic characteristics and an overview of their health care system. The data we present on Australia’s COVID-19 situation pertain to the initial wave of the pandemic from January through to 20 April 2020. The results of our study indicate the number of reported COVID-19 cases in Australia reduced, and Australia initially managed to successfully flatten the curve—from an initial doubling time of 3.4 days at the end of March 2020 to a doubling time of 112 days as of 20 April 2020. Using SEIR mathematical modelling, we investigate a scenario assuming infections increase once mitigation measures are lifted. In this case, Australia could experience over 15,000 confirmed cases by the end of April 2020. How Australia’s government, health authorities and citizens adjust to preventative measures to reduce the risk of transmission as well as the risk of overburdening Australia’s health care system is crucial. Our study presents the initial non-pharmaceutical intervention measures undertaken by the Australian health authorities in efforts to mitigate the rate of infection, and their observed and predicted outcomes. Finally, we conclude our study by presenting the observed and expected economic, social, and political disruptions Australians may endure as a result of the initial phase of the pandemic.

Keywords: Australia; case study; novel coronavirus; COVID-19; acute respiratory disease; epidemiology; non pharmaceutical intervention; country economy; social political disruption; media coverage; mathematical modelling; exit strategies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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