Analysis of COVID-19 Prevention and Control Effects Based on the SEITRD Dynamic Model and Wuhan Epidemic Statistics

Yusheng Zhang, Liang Li, Yuewen Jiang and Biqing Huang
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Yusheng Zhang: Department of Automation, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Liang Li: Department of Automation, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Yuewen Jiang: Clinical College of Chinese Medicine, Hubei University of Chinese Medicine, Wuhan 430072, China
Biqing Huang: Department of Automation, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 24, 1-16

Abstract: Since December 2019, millions of people worldwide have been diagnosed with COVID-19, which has caused enormous losses. Given that there are currently no effective treatment or prevention drugs, most countries and regions mainly rely on quarantine and travel restrictions to prevent the spread of the epidemic. How to find proper prevention and treatment methods has been a hot topic of discussion. The key to the problem is to understand when these intervention measures are the best strategies for disease control and how they might affect disease dynamics. In this paper, we build a transmission dynamic model in combination with the transmission characteristics of COVID-19. We thoroughly study the dynamical behavior of the model and analyze how to determine the relevant parameters, and how the parameters influence the transmission process. Furthermore, we subsequently compare the impact of different control strategies on the epidemic, the variables include intervention time, control duration, control intensity, and other model parameters. Finally, we can find a better control method by comparing the results under different schemes and choose the proper preventive control strategy according to the actual epidemic stage and control objectives.

Keywords: dynamics model; control strategy; COVID-19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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