Two-Source Capture-Recapture Method to Estimate the Incidence of Acute Flaccid Paralysis in the Marches Region (Italy)

Pamela Barbadoro, Aurora Luciani, Matteo Ciotti, Marcello Mario D’Errico and on behalf of the AFP Working Collaborative Group
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Pamela Barbadoro: Department of Biomedical Science and Public Health, Università Politecnica delle Marche, via Tronto 10/A, 6, 60121 Ancona, Italy
Aurora Luciani: Department of Biomedical Science and Public Health, Università Politecnica delle Marche, via Tronto 10/A, 6, 60121 Ancona, Italy
Matteo Ciotti: Department of Biomedical Science and Public Health, Università Politecnica delle Marche, via Tronto 10/A, 6, 60121 Ancona, Italy
Marcello Mario D’Errico: Department of Biomedical Science and Public Health, Università Politecnica delle Marche, via Tronto 10/A, 6, 60121 Ancona, Italy
on behalf of the AFP Working Collaborative Group: School of Hygiene and Preventive Medicine, Department of Biomedical Science and Public Health, Università Politecnica delle Marche, via Tronto 10/A, 6, 60121 Ancona, Italy

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 24, 1-8

Abstract: A combination of high infant immunization coverage and surveillance of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases, plays a critical role in polio eradication. This study aimed to estimate the incidence of AFP, to evaluate the completeness of AFP ascertainment during the years, age groups and gender, and to define the main associated diagnosis among children aged under 15 in the Marches region of Italy. Analysis was performed on data from the active AFP surveillance system and the hospital discharge records in the 2006–2014 period. The two-source capture-recapture method was applied. After cross-validation, 30 AFP compatible conditions as defined by the WHO were identified, with an incidence estimate of 1.91 cases of AFP per 100,000 children under 15 years (95% CI = 1.4–2.6/100,000). Guillain–Barrè syndrome was the most common diagnosis. A significant difference ( p < 0.05) has been registered in the estimated probability of case ascertainment in females. The reasons for the lower reporting of cases in females are unknown. Specific research and the implementation of a more sensitive surveillance system are essential in verifying potential inequalities and to succeed in the polio eradication initiative.

Keywords: acute flaccid paralysis; poliomyelitis; surveillance systems; sensitivity; epidemiologic surveillance/methods; epidemiologic methods; socioeconomic factors; Italy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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