An Association between Rainy Days with Clinical Dengue Fever in Dhaka, Bangladesh: Findings from a Hospital Based Study

Kazi Mizanur Rahman, Yushuf Sharker, Reza Ali Rumi, Mahboob-Ul Islam Khan, Mohammad Sohel Shomik, Muhammad Waliur Rahman, Sk Masum Billah, Mahmudur Rahman, Peter Kim Streatfield, David Harley and Stephen P. Luby
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Kazi Mizanur Rahman: International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh
Yushuf Sharker: Department of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06520-0834, USA
Reza Ali Rumi: International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh
Mahboob-Ul Islam Khan: International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh
Mohammad Sohel Shomik: International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh
Muhammad Waliur Rahman: International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh
Sk Masum Billah: International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh
Mahmudur Rahman: Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR), Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh
Peter Kim Streatfield: International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh
David Harley: Children’s Health Queensland Clinical Unit, Faculty of Medicine, The University of Queensland, Queensland Children’s Hospital, South Brisbane, QLD 4101, Australia
Stephen P. Luby: Center for Innovation in Global Health, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 24, 1-9

Abstract: Background: Dengue, a febrile illness, is caused by a Flavivirus transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. Climate influences the ecology of the vectors. We aimed to identify the influence of climatic variability on the occurrence of clinical dengue requiring hospitalization in Zone-5, a high incidence area of Dhaka City Corporation (DCC), Bangladesh. Methods and Findings: We retrospectively identified clinical dengue cases hospitalized from Zone-5 of DCC between 2005 and 2009. We extracted records of the four major catchment hospitals of the study area. The Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) provided data on temperature, rainfall, and humidity of DCC for the study period. We used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for the number of monthly dengue hospitalizations. We also modeled all the climatic variables using Poisson regression. During our study period, dengue occurred throughout the year in Zone-5 of DCC. The median number of hospitalized dengue cases was 9 per month. Dengue incidence increased sharply from June, and reached its peak in August. One additional rainy day per month increased dengue cases in the succeeding month by 6% (RR = 1.06, 95% CI: 1.04–1.09). Conclusions: Dengue is transmitted throughout the year in Zone-5 of DCC, with seasonal variation in incidence. The number of rainy days per month is significantly associated with dengue incidence in the subsequent month. Our study suggests the initiation of campaigns in DCC for controlling dengue and other Aedes mosquito borne diseases, including Chikunguniya from the month of May each year. BMD rainfall data may be used to determine campaign timing.

Keywords: dengue; seasonal variation; year-long transmission; climatic variability; rainfall; prediction; disease control campaigns (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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