Keeping Low Reproductive Number Despite the Rebound Population Mobility in Korea, a Country Never under Lockdown during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Soyoung Kim, Yae-Jean Kim, Kyong Ran Peck, Youngsuk Ko, Jonggul Lee and Eunok Jung
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Soyoung Kim: Department of Mathematics, Konkuk University, Seoul 05029, Korea
Yae-Jean Kim: Department of Pediatrics, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul 06351, Korea
Kyong Ran Peck: Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul 06351, Korea
Youngsuk Ko: Department of Mathematics, Konkuk University, Seoul 05029, Korea
Jonggul Lee: INSERM, Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health, Sorbonne Université, 75646 Paris, France
Eunok Jung: Department of Mathematics, Konkuk University, Seoul 05029, Korea

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 24, 1-9

Abstract: Nonpharmaceutical intervention has been one of the most important strategies to prevent the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 in the communities during the COVID-19 pandemic. Korea has a unique experience that we had the first large outbreak during the early pandemic and could flatten the epidemic curve without lockdown. In this study, the effective reproductive numbers were calculated for the entire nation and Seoul (the capital city) Metropolitan Area from February 16–15 July, where 60% of the population reside. We compared the changes in population mobility data and reproductive number trends according to the changes in the government’s nonpharmaceutical intervention strategy. The total daily mobility decreased when Korea had the first wave of a large outbreak in February–March 2020, which was mainly caused by the decrease of daily noncommuting mobility. However, daily commuting mobility from 16 February to 30 June 2020 was maintained at a similar level since there was no national lockdown for workers who commute between home and work. During the first half-year of 2020, Korea could control the outbreak to a manageable level without a significant decrease in daily public mobility. However, it may be only possible when the public follows personal hygiene principles and social distancing without crisis fatigue or reduced compliance.

Keywords: COVID-19; mathematical modeling; reproductive number; population mobility; lockdown; Republic of Korea (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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