Assessment of the Risk of Oral Cancer Incidence in A High-Risk Population and Establishment of A Predictive Model for Oral Cancer Incidence Using A Population-Based Cohort in Taiwan

Li-Chen Hung, Pei-Tseng Kung, Chi-Hsuan Lung, Ming-Hsui Tsai, Shih-An Liu, Li-Ting Chiu, Kuang-Hua Huang and Wen-Chen Tsai
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Li-Chen Hung: Department of Public Health, China Medical University, Taichung 40402, Taiwan
Pei-Tseng Kung: Department of Healthcare Administration, Asia University, Taichung 41354, Taiwan
Chi-Hsuan Lung: Department of Social Work, National Quemoy University, Quemoy 892, Taiwan
Ming-Hsui Tsai: Department of Otolaryngology, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung 40447, Taiwan
Shih-An Liu: Department of ENT, Taichung Veterans General Hospital, Taichung 40705, Taiwan
Li-Ting Chiu: Department of Health Services Administration, China Medical University, Taichung 40402, Taiwan
Kuang-Hua Huang: Department of Health Services Administration, China Medical University, Taichung 40402, Taiwan
Wen-Chen Tsai: Department of Health Services Administration, China Medical University, Taichung 40402, Taiwan

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 2, 1-15

Abstract: We aimed to assess the risk of oral cancer incidence in a high-risk population, establish a predictive model for oral cancer among these high-risk individuals, and assess the predictive ability of the constructed model. Individuals aged ≥30 years who had a habit of smoking or betel nut chewing and had undergone oral cancer screening in 2010 or 2011 were selected as study subjects. The incidence of oral cancer among the subjects at the end of 2014 was determined. The annual oral cancer incidence among individuals with a positive screening result was 624 per 100,000 persons, which was 6.5 times that of the annual oral cancer incidence among all individuals screened. Male sex, aged 45–64 years, divorce, low educational level, presence of diabetes, presence of other cancers, high comorbidity severity, a habit of smoking or betel nut chewing, and low monthly salary were high-risk factors for oral cancer incidence ( p < 0.05). The area under the curve of the predictive model for oral cancer incidence was 0.73, which indicated a good predictive ability. Therefore, the oral cancer screening policy for the high-risk population with a habit of smoking and/or betel nut chewing is beneficial for the early diagnosis of oral cancer.

Keywords: oral cancer; smoking; betel nut chewing; screening; prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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