Comparing Logistic Regression Models with Alternative Machine Learning Methods to Predict the Risk of Drug Intoxication Mortality

YoungJin Choi and YooKyung Boo
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YoungJin Choi: Department of Healthcare Administration, Eulji University, Seongnam 13135, Korea
YooKyung Boo: Department of Health Administration, Dankook University, Cheonan 31116, Korea

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 3, 1-10

Abstract: (1) Medical research has shown an increasing interest in machine learning, permitting massive multivariate data analysis. Thus, we developed drug intoxication mortality prediction models, and compared machine learning models and traditional logistic regression. (2) Categorized as drug intoxication, 8,937 samples were extracted from the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2008-2017). We trained, validated, and tested each model through data and compared their performance using three measures: Brier score, calibration slope, and calibration-in-the-large. (3) A chi-square test demonstrated that mortality risk statistically significantly differed according to severity, intent, toxic substance, age, and sex. The multilayer perceptron model (MLP) had the highest area under the curve (AUC), and lowest Brier score in training and validation phases, while the logistic regression model (LR) showed the highest AUC (0.827) and lowest Brier score (0.0307) in the testing phase. MLP also had the second-highest AUC (0.816) and second-lowest Brier score (0.003258) in the testing phase, demonstrating better performance than the decision-making tree model. (4) Given the complexity of choosing tuning parameters, LR proved competitive when using medical datasets, which require strict accuracy.

Keywords: drug intoxication; influencing factor; logistic regression; machine learning; mortality prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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