Assessing Seasonality Variation with Harmonic Regression: Accommodations for Sharp Peaks

Kavitha Ramanathan, Mani Thenmozhi, Sebastian George, Shalini Anandan, Balaji Veeraraghavan, Elena N. Naumova and Lakshmanan Jeyaseelan
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Kavitha Ramanathan: Department of Biostatistics, Christian Medical College, Vellore 632002, India
Mani Thenmozhi: Department of Biostatistics, Christian Medical College, Vellore 632002, India
Sebastian George: Department of Statistics, St. Thomas College, Palai, Kerala 686575, India
Shalini Anandan: Department of Clinical Microbiology, Christian Medical College, Vellore 632004, India
Balaji Veeraraghavan: Department of Clinical Microbiology, Christian Medical College, Vellore 632004, India
Elena N. Naumova: Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University, Boston, MA 02111, USA
Lakshmanan Jeyaseelan: Department of Biostatistics, Christian Medical College, Vellore 632002, India

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 4, 1-14

Abstract: The use of the harmonic regression model is well accepted in the epidemiological and biostatistical communities as a standard procedure to examine seasonal patterns in disease occurrence. While these models may provide good fit to periodic patterns with relatively symmetric rises and falls, for some diseases the incidence fluctuates in a more complex manner. We propose a two-step harmonic regression approach to improve the model fit for data exhibiting sharp seasonal peaks. To capture such specific behavior, we first build a basic model and estimate the seasonal peak. At the second step, we apply an extended model using sine and cosine transform functions. These newly proposed functions mimic a quadratic term in the harmonic regression models and thus allow us to better fit the seasonal spikes. We illustrate the proposed method using actual and simulated data and recommend the new approach to assess seasonality in a broad spectrum of diseases manifesting sharp seasonal peaks.

Keywords: time series; harmonic regression; seasonality; infectious disease; ARIMA/SARIMA; trends (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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