Short-Term Effect of Air Pollution on Tuberculosis Based on Kriged Data: A Time-Series Analysis

Shuqiong Huang, Hao Xiang, Wenwen Yang, Zhongmin Zhu, Liqiao Tian, Shiquan Deng, Tianhao Zhang, Yuanan Lu, Feifei Liu, Xiangyu Li and Suyang Liu
Additional contact information
Shuqiong Huang: Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan 430079, China
Hao Xiang: Department of Global Health, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 115 Donghu Road, Wuhan 430071, China
Wenwen Yang: Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan 430079, China
Zhongmin Zhu: College of Information Science and Engineering, Wuchang Shouyi University, Wuhan 430064, China
Liqiao Tian: State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
Shiquan Deng: State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
Tianhao Zhang: State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
Yuanan Lu: Environmental Health Laboratory, Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1960 East-West Road, Biomed Building, D105, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA
Feifei Liu: Department of Global Health, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 115 Donghu Road, Wuhan 430071, China
Xiangyu Li: Department of Global Health, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 115 Donghu Road, Wuhan 430071, China
Suyang Liu: Department of Global Health, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 115 Donghu Road, Wuhan 430071, China

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 5, 1-14

Abstract: Tuberculosis (TB) has a very high mortality rate worldwide. However, only a few studies have examined the associations between short-term exposure to air pollution and TB incidence. Our objectives were to estimate associations between short-term exposure to air pollutants and TB incidence in Wuhan city, China, during the 2015–2016 period. We applied a generalized additive model to access the short-term association of air pollution with TB. Daily exposure to each air pollutant in Wuhan was determined using ordinary kriging. The air pollutants included in the analysis were particulate matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 micrometers (PM 2.5 ), PM with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 10 micrometers (PM 10 ), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), carbon monoxide (CO), and ground-level ozone (O 3 ). Daily incident cases of TB were obtained from the Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Hubei CDC). Both single- and multiple-pollutant models were used to examine the associations between air pollution and TB. Seasonal variation was assessed by splitting the all-year data into warm (May–October) and cold (November–April) seasons. In the single-pollutant model, for a 10 μg/m 3 increase in PM 2.5 , PM 10 , and O 3 at lag 7, the associated TB risk increased by 17.03% (95% CI: 6.39, 28.74), 11.08% (95% CI: 6.39, 28.74), and 16.15% (95% CI: 1.88, 32.42), respectively. In the multi-pollutant model, the effect of PM 2.5 on TB remained statistically significant, while the effects of other pollutants were attenuated. The seasonal analysis showed that there was not much difference regarding the impact of air pollution on TB between the warm season and the cold season. Our study reveals that the mechanism linking air pollution and TB is still complex. Further research is warranted to explore the interaction of air pollution and TB.

Keywords: tuberculosis; infectious disease; air pollution; time-series; Poisson regression; kriging (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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