Bayesian Network-Based Risk Assessment of Single-Phase Grounding Accidents of Power Transmission Lines

Jun Zhang, Haifeng Bian, Huanhuan Zhao, Xuexue Wang, Linlin Zhang and Yiping Bai
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Jun Zhang: State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 102209, China
Haifeng Bian: State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 102209, China
Huanhuan Zhao: School of Emergency Management and Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology, Beijing 100083, China
Xuexue Wang: School of Emergency Management and Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology, Beijing 100083, China
Linlin Zhang: School of Emergency Management and Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology, Beijing 100083, China
Yiping Bai: School of Emergency Management and Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology, Beijing 100083, China

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 6, 1-17

Abstract: With the increasing demand for electricity transmission and distribution, single-phase grounding accidents, which cause great economic losses and casualties, have occurred frequently. In this study, a Bayesian network (BN)-based risk assessment model for representing single-phase grounding accidents is proposed to examine accident evolution from causes to potential consequences. The Bayesian network of single-phase grounding accidents includes 21 nodes that take into account the influential factors of environment, management, equipment and human error. The Bow-tie method was employed to build the accident evolution path and then converted to a BN. The BN conditional probability tables are determined with reference to historical accident data and expert opinion obtained by the Delphi method. The probability of a single-phase grounding accident and its potential consequences in normal conditions and three typical accident scenarios are analyzed. We found that “Storm” is the most critical hazard of single-phase grounding, followed by “Aging” and “Icing”. This study could quantitatively evaluate the single-phase grounding accident in multi-hazard coupling scenarios and provide technical support for occupational health and safety management of power transmission lines.

Keywords: risk assessment; bayesian network (BN); bow-tie; power transmission line; single-phase grounding (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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