Global Incidence and Mortality Patterns of Pedestrian Road Traffic Injuries by Sociodemographic Index, with Forecasting: Findings from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2017 Study

Moien A. B. Khan, Michal Grivna, Javaid Nauman, Elpidoforos S. Soteriades, Arif Alper Cevik, Muhammad Jawad Hashim, Romona Govender and Salma Rashid Al Azeezi
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Moien A. B. Khan: Department of Family Medicine, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain 15551, UAE
Michal Grivna: Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain 15551, UAE
Javaid Nauman: Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain 15551, UAE
Elpidoforos S. Soteriades: Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain 15551, UAE
Arif Alper Cevik: Internal Medicine, Emergency Medicine Section, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain 15551, UAE
Muhammad Jawad Hashim: Department of Family Medicine, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain 15551, UAE
Romona Govender: Department of Family Medicine, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain 15551, UAE
Salma Rashid Al Azeezi: Department of Family Medicine, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain 15551, UAE

IJERPH, 2020, vol. 17, issue 6, 1-15

Abstract: (1) Background: Pedestrian injuries (PIs) represent a significant proportion of road traffic injuries. Our aim was to investigate the incidence and mortality of PIs in different age groups and sociodemographic index (SDI) categories between 1990 and 2017. (2) Method: Estimates of age-standardized incidence and mortality along with trends of PIs by SDI levels were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease from 1990 to 2017. We also forecasted the trends across all the SDI categories until 2040 using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS Statistics for Windows, version 23.0, Chicago, IL, USA) time series expert modeler. (3) Results: Globally, the incidence of PIs increased by 3.31% (−9.94 to 16.56) in 2017 compared to 1990. Men have higher incidence of PIs than women. Forecasted incidence was 132.02 (127.37 to 136.66) per 100,000 population in 2020, 101.52 (65.99 to 137.05) in 2030, and reduced further to 71.02 (10.62 to 152.65) by 2040. Globally across all SDI categories, there was a decreasing trend in mortality due to PIs with the global estimated percentage reduction of 37.12% (−45.19 to −29.04). (4) Conclusions: The results show that PIs are still a burden for all SDI categories despite some variation. Although incidence and mortality are expected to decrease globally, some SDI categories and specific vulnerable age groups may require particular attention. Further studies addressing incidence and mortality patterns in vulnerable SDI categories are needed.

Keywords: road traffic injuries; pedestrians; public safety; global burden; economic loss; health policy; healthcare system; health indicators (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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